2025 RAND Wrap-Up: Research That Defined Our Year

Strengthening the U.S. Military

U.S. soldiers take part in a human machine integration demonstration at Fort Irwin, California, March 15, 2024

Photo by Spc. Samarion Hicks/U.S. Army

Nearly four years of full-scale war in Ukraine have provided some insight into what future battlefields might look like: the strategic use of irregular warfare, the proliferation of robotics, and ubiquitous sensing. China has fielded far more-advanced capabilities across these areas. Its ability to threaten U.S. interests through subversive activities, large inventories of precision weapons, and a layered surveillance network presents a significantly greater challenge.

“If we stick with business as usual … we run a real risk of losing the next war and/or failing to deter that war,” RAND's David Ochmanek said.

For the U.S. Air Force: China's missiles can reach every U.S. air base in the Pacific. The U.S. Air Force has made it a top priority to harden those bases to withstand attack. RAND research shows how increased investments in redundant fuel supplies, runway repair capabilities, and other defensive preparations can help. The Air Force will need to pursue these improvements with an eye not just to missiles, but to drones and other future threats.

For the U.S. Army: Soldiers need to train as they will fight. Yet RAND found that some Army units had limited experience with drones. That was partly because their leaders were concerned about losing or damaging drones. A subsequent Pentagon directive ordered units to better integrate drones into their training and to overcome “risk aversion.”

The Army also asked RAND to recommend how it can best pair human soldiers with AI-guided machines. The key difficulty, researchers warned, will be trust. The Army should introduce AI systems slowly, starting with simple tasks—more like integrating a new recruit than a new machine.

For the U.S. Navy: The U.S. Navy faces a strategic conundrum. Its force structure is getting smaller while China's navy rapidly expands in numbers and capabilities. RAND found that the Navy's existing force is inadequate, and future plans make only small improvements. That may be changing, as both Congress and the White House have prioritized building more ships. RAND's analysis suggests smaller surface ships will be especially valuable for crisis response and presence. The Navy should also continue to experiment with uncrewed systems, which can carry more fuel, sensors, and weapons.

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Charting the cosmos: Researchers developed a new way to chart the astrographic regions around any planet in the universe. Their goal was to give U.S. Space Command and the Department of the Air Force, as well as civil and commercial users, a more accessible way to think about and describe space. RAND's framework defines four distinct regions around planets, moons, and other bodies: the surface environment, near-body space, the celestial neighborhood, and deep space.

Reserve component reforms: U.S. military reservists and National Guard members serve under a sprawling system of duty statuses and pay policies. The Pentagon asked RAND to help it design a more efficient and effective system. Researchers proposed a streamlined approach that would better meet the needs of the military, individual commanders, and service members. It would also prevent unnecessary breaks in member pay and benefits.

One key stat: $2.5 billion. That's how much IT and software problems are costing the military every year in lost productivity, according to a January 2025 RAND report. As the Pentagon focuses on efficiency in several areas, RAND provided a plan to prioritize upgrades, which would improve mission readiness, operations, and security.

Anticipating the Future of Artificial Intelligence

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AI labs around the world are racing to develop an artificial intelligence so advanced that it could outperform humans on most mental tasks. The benefits of such an artificial general intelligence, or AGI, could change the world. The national security consequences could, too. Humanity is “utterly unprepared,” RAND's Joel Predd said.

There are some significant potential national security risks to anticipate and manage. AGI could create new military capabilities. It could stop following human instructions. The race itself could raise the risk of geopolitical tensions and conflict.

“Our job at RAND,” said Jim Mitre, “is to help anticipate what some of the choices are going to be, some of the trade-offs—and to make sure we think through them in advance.”

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Power crunch: Communities across the United States face a “substantial risk” of energy shortfalls as data centers draw more and more power. Researchers identified a series of steps that could generate hundreds of gigawatts of additional capacity. Those include upgrading transmission lines, making better use of existing connection rights, and mapping sites for future power plants.

AI economics: RAND modeled thousands of possible futures to see how policymakers can encourage economic growth from AI while minimizing job losses. All the best-performing options focused on using AI to improve tasks that are already automated.

Suicide risk: Researchers tested common AI chatbots to see how they would respond to questions about suicide. None directly answered questions that human clinicians had ranked as the most dangerous. But some models did engage on mid-risk questions about lethality.

One key stat: 72 percent. That's how many Americans say it's at least somewhat important for the United States to maintain its position as the world leader on AI.

Competing with China

The closing stock index of China's stock market at midday on the large screen of the Lujiazui Overpass in Shanghai, China, December 8, 2025

Photo by CFOTO/Sipa USA via Reuters

The United States faces growing economic and technological challenges from China. Competing effectively will require better understanding China's strengths, weaknesses, and the tools with which it is building up its techno-industrial might.

Researchers argued that China's new, high-tech economy is far stronger than its old economy. They provided lessons from China's industrial playbook. And they offered takeaways from the U.S.-China trade war. They also detailed the role of Beijing's techno-industrial policies in building out China's AI stack.

China also poses a growing security challenge. RAND has studied the military options for years. But researchers also looked at whether economic sanctions could convince China to stand down if it appeared to be readying an invasion of Taiwan. They found that China's economy could be vulnerable. But success would likely depend on whether the United States could convince major allies, such as Japan and Australia, to join the effort. That is far from certain.

U.S. leaders should draw up contingency plans for sanctioning China to head off a possible invasion—and they should make those plans public. The very existence of such plans might factor into China's risk analysis.

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Taiwan resilience: Taiwan society has made tremendous strides in preparing for national emergencies. But its focus has been on natural disasters more than a military invasion by China. Political leaders there disagree over how much of a threat China poses. RAND research shows how the United States can help cut through political polarization and bolster whole-of-society defense efforts.

Seabed mining: Potato-sized accretions on the ocean floor could help break China's dominance of some key supply chains. Those accretions could be a significant source of critical minerals, such as nickel and cobalt, which are essential for defense, energy, and other sectors. But the United States and its allies will need to establish new processing and refining capabilities to shift production away from China.

Demographic strains: China has one of the fastest-aging societies in the world, and some of the lowest birth rates. As a result, it faces a steep labor force contraction by 2050. Those demographic forces have profound implications for China's social and national security, RAND found. They could, for example, start to strain China's armed forces in the coming decades. Efforts to raise fertility rates have been largely unsuccessful, in part because they don't address social and economic constraints that keep people from having children.

Command and control: U.S. commanders have historically been more comfortable trusting their subordinates to make decisions than their Chinese counterparts are. That has made the U.S. military much more agile and responsive. But military experts in China now recognize that future warfare will be faster and more complex—and may require less-centralized command. That could erode what has always been assumed to be a key U.S. advantage. It also could make China's units more aggressive and unpredictable.

Reimagining the Future of the Middle East

Displaced Palestinian children talk to each other as they shelter in a tent camp in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, December 29, 2024

Photo by Mohammed Salem/Reuters

Rebuilding the Gaza Strip will take years and cost billions of dollars. But it could improve the lives not just of Palestinians, but of Israelis and people throughout the Middle East. RAND developed a detailed plan that shows how.

It begins with housing. Researchers used satellite images to identify fields and former neighborhoods where Gaza's displaced people could live. They proposed organizing tents and other temporary housing around community hubs, with services and utilities. Over time, permanent buildings would replace the tents. That would leave Gaza with well-planned, functional communities.

Gaza will also need new roads. New wells and water pipes. New power plants and transmission lines. RAND led an effort to envision what the future of Gaza and the West Bank could look like. It detailed nearly 200 projects, some of which could start immediately, some of which would take years. The completed vision would represent “a catalyst for peace, stability, and sustainable development,” researchers wrote. It would also help support a durable peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

The challenges—in security, governance, logistics, and financing—are daunting. But a better future “is achievable with political will, good-faith negotiations, strategic planning, and international support,” RAND's Shelly Culbertson said.

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Hezbollah in Latin America: The Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah maintains a presence in several Latin American countries. Hezbollah affiliates have been linked to drug trafficking, money laundering, and other crimes. Several disrupted plots over the years suggest the group is also seeking capabilities to target U.S., Israeli, and Jewish targets in the region. Hezbollah-linked operations have been documented in a dozen Latin American countries, but especially in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Venezuela.

Pursuing a Ceasefire in Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and other world leaders meet for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, in Washington, D.C., August 18, 2025

Photo by Alexander Drago/Reuters

World leaders have struggled for nearly four years to find the combination of terms that will bring Russia and Ukraine to the table. RAND researchers pulled together lessons from decades of effective ceasefires to develop guidelines to end the fighting in Ukraine.

It would start with both sides agreeing to not just stop fighting, but to withdraw their forces from the front lines. Any ceasefire agreement should include a wide demilitarized zone to separate enemy troops. An international peacekeeping force would be needed to prevent renewed fighting and ensure both sides are living up to the agreement. Fixed cameras, sensors, and drones could help monitor for compliance.

“Negotiators should aim to unlock a ceasefire by pursuing a framework agreement,” RAND's Samuel Charap wrote in the New York Times in late November. “A final settlement will take many months, if not years, of structured negotiations to conclude. But with a framework agreement and a concurrent ceasefire, those talks would proceed without the death and destruction that now extend from the battlefields of the Donbas to Ukraine's major cities.”

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Wartime innovation: Rapid advances in drones, electronic warfare, and surveillance have helped keep Ukraine in the fight against Russia. RAND Europe partnered with Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Transformation to help it strengthen its technological advantages. Researchers developed a new military doctrine to better incorporate fast-evolving technologies. They also provided recommendations to help Ukraine disseminate frontline lessons across the force, bolster its industrial base, and continue to stay ahead of the technological curve.

Lessons learned: Researchers assessed the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war for the U.S. military and economy, U.S. allies, and U.S. rivals. Among their dozens of recommendations: The United States should increase collaboration and planning with European allies to address global concerns. It should invest more in guarding against information operations. And it should better prepare its industrial base to support a prolonged conflict.

Improving U.S. Health Care

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A Medicare Advantage program seemed promising, at least on paper. Then RAND found it was running up more than $2 billion in unexpected costs.

The program encouraged people to better manage their health by getting preventive screenings or keeping up with their drug regimens. In return, insurance providers could offer them small incentives, such as grocery cards or lower copays.

Medicare administrators brought in RAND to evaluate the program. Researchers found that it did improve some testing rates and other markers of care. But it also allowed insurers to seek and receive higher payments. With millions of patients participating, that added up to around $2.2 billion in unplanned expenses in 2022 alone.

Medicare ended the program in 2025. The benefits did not outweigh the costs that RAND identified.

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Saving emergency care: Overcrowded and understaffed, U.S. emergency departments are reaching a breaking point. “The viability of emergency care as we know it is at risk,” RAND concluded. The many challenges facing emergency departments include sicker and needier patients, workforce shortages, and billions of dollars a year in unpaid expenses. Researchers provided dozens of recommendations to stabilize emergency care, including a new payment model and stipends for providing care to uninsured patients.

An opioid intervention: Researchers sent short emails to surgeons who had overprescribed opioids for pain management, reminding them to follow prescribing guidelines. The surgeons who received those emails were much less likely to overprescribe going forward. That simple intervention could keep millions of opioid pills from being prescribed and misused.

One key stat: 12 percent. That's roughly how many Americans have used GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy for weight loss. The highest rate of use was among women between 50 and 64 years old; around one in five had used the drugs.

Helping Schools and Students Navigate New Realities

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For years, RAND has surveyed teachers, principals, and school district leaders for an on-the-ground look at American education. In 2025, it added findings from two new survey panels, capturing the experiences of youth and parents. The results provide fresh perspectives on the new realities schools are grappling with.

More than half of middle and high school students said they use AI for their school work. Many students and parents worried that it would harm kids' critical thinking skills. Fewer than one in five students said their teachers give them guidance on how to use AI for school work.

Students also worry that cell phones have become a distraction during the school day. Around 60 percent support some limits on phone use at school. But only 11 percent support the bell-to-bell bans that most schools favor. They said they want their parents to be able to reach them if needed—the same reason most parents gave for also opposing blanket restrictions.

Students also are much more likely to miss school than they were before the pandemic. Nearly a quarter of K–12 students are chronically absent, which means they miss 10 percent or more of their school days. The most common reason, RAND found, is illness. That might reflect parents and students taking even minor symptoms more seriously since COVID. But it goes beyond sickness: Nine percent said they missed school because they overslept, and 7 percent said they weren't interested.

“Education is evolving quickly right now,” RAND's Heather Schwartz said. Teachers' and students' uptake of AI for schools is increasing rapidly. New federal tax credits slated for 2026 will fuel the ongoing expansion of school choice, giving families the option to spend public funds on educational expenses like tutoring or tuition.

The new survey panels allow RAND to capture “fresh perspectives from students and families as well as educators,” Schwartz said, “giving us a truly comprehensive view of public education from every angle.”

Addressing the U.S. Housing Crisis

Construction workers build multifamily housing in San Diego, California, January 13, 2023

Photo by Mike Blake/Reuters

Housing has become increasingly unaffordable in cities and states across America. In California, where home prices are among the highest in the country, policymakers have made it a top priority to build more homes and make them more affordable. An analysis by the RAND Center on Housing and Homelessness helped pinpoint where they could make the most difference.

Researchers found that it costs more than twice as much to build the same multifamily housing in California as it does in Texas. A big part of that was permitting delays and long wait times for inspections. It took nearly two years longer to complete a project in California than in Texas. Special fees, such as those to mitigate traffic impacts, also drove up California costs.

California lawmakers subsequently required agencies to approve or deny housing applications within 45 days. They also put a temporary freeze on any new building standards that would slow residential development.

Reducing costs is “fundamental” to addressing the nation's housing and homelessness crises, RAND's Jason Ward said. “It's a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to ending homelessness.”

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Homeless numbers: Researchers have been surveying people experiencing homelessness in three Los Angeles neighborhoods for years now. They've found that official numbers sharply undercount people living on the street. That undercount could jeopardize recent progress in the city, as it coincides with a rise in “rough sleepers,” people with no shelter, tent, or vehicle. RAND's findings could help leaders better identify areas of high need and direct resources to address them.

Foster care youth: Young people too often age out of the foster care system with no housing and little support. RAND followed two dozen young adults navigating that transition in Los Angeles County. They moved an average of 15 times during the one-year study period. Only half found long-term housing. Policymakers should continue to provide and improve housing, case management, and other services. Previous RAND research has shown that the foster care system is a significant contributor to youth homelessness.