The Chinese government has implemented a range of pronatalist policies aimed at reversing the country’s fertility decline, but these policy measures have not been successful. The authors of this report review China’s policy responses to demographic challenges from 2015 to 2025 and evaluate why these efforts have proven unsuccessful, offering lessons for U.S. policymakers.

Pronatalist Pivot

Assessing China’s Policy Efforts to Boost Fertility

Kelly Atkinson, Tahina Montoya, Michael S. Pollard, Libby Weaver, Flora Sheng, Kelly Piazza, Agnes Xiangzhen Wang

ResearchPublished Nov 12, 2025

China is experiencing declining birth rates and a rapidly aging population, resulting in a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on social services. The Chinese government has implemented a range of pronatalist policies aimed at reversing fertility decline, including the universal two-child policy in 2015 and the three-child policy in 2021, yet these policy measures have not corrected China’s plummeting total fertility rate or birth rate. The authors of this report assess China’s policy responses to demographic challenges from 2015 to 2025 and consider how China’s experience can inform U.S. policy responses to fertility decline and related demographic challenges.

Key Findings

China’s implementation of pronatalist policies has been highly uneven

  • China’s pronatalist policies have not reversed fertility decline or increased population growth to a sustainable rate, demonstrating the limits of state-led interventions in family decisionmaking.
  • China’s implementation of national fertility policies is highly uneven across regions, with national directives producing a patchwork of local practices that reflects administrative fragmentation and variable capacity.
  • China is leveraging technological innovation and artificial intelligence to address demographic challenges, but existing population and resource variation will limit capabilities for technology to solve challenges arising from an aging population.
  • Chinese government officials and academics call for greater coordination and cohesion in policy responses to reverse demographic decline, with particular focus on structural changes, such as expanded child-care services and housing policy adjustments.

There are opportunities to boost fertility by helping people who already want more children to have them

  • Survey literature addressing Chinese fertility intentions among the broader Chinese population reveals opportunities to boost fertility by helping people who already want more children to have them, rather than trying to increase desire to have children.
  • Social media sentiment analysis shows that Chinese social media users are optimistic in posts addressing new pronatalist policies but express pessimism in posts that address policy implementation, reflecting poor policy execution and lack of structural support.
  • China’s fertility decline reflects unmet fertility intentions, not a lack of desire to have children. Pronatalist policy misses the mark by targeting norms and administrative reforms rather than enabling those intentions by addressing social or economic constraints.

Recommendations

  • The United States should learn from China’s failed pronatalist policy efforts; policymakers should focus on enabling citizens to meet existing fertility intentions rather than trying to increase desire to have children.
  • The United States should consider approaches to addressing fertility decline beyond financial incentives, including removing structural barriers to expanding families by improving access to affordable child care and housing.
  • U.S. policymakers should apply the authors’ categorization of fertility policy targets to map existing and future policy interventions, identify gaps, and integrate awareness of norms and behaviors within government policy responses.

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Atkinson, Kelly, Tahina Montoya, Michael S. Pollard, Libby Weaver, Flora Sheng, Kelly Piazza, and Agnes Xiangzhen Wang, Pronatalist Pivot: Assessing China’s Policy Efforts to Boost Fertility. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4348-1.html.
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