Six Ways AI Could Cause the Next Big War, and Why It Probably Won't

Zachary Burdette, Karl P. Mueller, Jim Mitre, Lily Hoak

ResearchPosted on rand.org Jul 17, 2025Published in: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 81, Issue 4, pages 305-312 (2025). DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2025.2515793

Unlike dystopian visions of artificial intelligence ushering in a new era of conflict and chaos, the likelihood of AI tools directly triggering a major war appears limited. But there are specific pathways that could increase the risk of conflict if governments do not manage them properly. The two most concerning are the traditional challenge that technological breakthroughs will lead to destabilizing shifts in the balance of power, and the novel problem that AI could distort human strategic judgment in ways that fuel misperceptions and miscalculations.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation ; Open Access
  • Publisher: Informa UK Limited (Taylor & Francis Group)
  • Availability: Non-RAND
  • Year: 2025
  • Pages: 9
  • Document Number: EP-70978

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