The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is straining U.S. data centers and the electric grid. Researchers identified barriers to expanding grid capacity, evaluated which can be addressed by 2030, and outlined policy options to overcome them. They offer recommendations for regulators, planners, and system operators, along with estimates of additional capacity that could be unlocked.

Expanding U.S. Net Available Power Capacity by 2030

Barriers and Solutions

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, Aisha Najera, Austin Smidt, Robin Wang, Hye Min Park, Henri van Soest, David Gill

ResearchPublished Oct 13, 2025

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has driven a surge in computational demand, creating unprecedented pressures on U.S. data centers and the electric power grid. The authors of this report identified the key constraints limiting the grid's ability to expand capacity and support future AI growth. They also reviewed research on barriers to increasing electricity supply, assessed which could be addressed by 2030, and suggested courses of action to tackle those barriers. The report provides their recommendations for federal and state regulators, grid planners, and system operators, along with estimates of the additional capacity that could be achieved if these barriers are resolved.

Key Findings

Barriers that stakeholders can address by 2030 fall into four categories

  • Permitting delays can be caused by poor coordination between agencies for permitting processes and time needed for permitting processes. Potential risks of addressing these barriers include community opposition, insufficient developer interest, and negative impacts on the environment.
  • Interconnection processes can be lengthy, complex, and costly and result in interconnection rights that are underused because of inconsistent implementation, lack of standardization, and insufficient market incentives. Potential risks of addressing these barriers include diversion of resources from interconnection reform, grid reliability risks, and unequal access to fast-track processes.
  • Transmission can be underutilized for a variety of reasons, including suboptimal transmission line configuration and usage, substantial costs for network upgrades, minimal incentives to adopt grid-enhancing technologies (GETs), and limited operator capabilities to manage and analyze large volumes of data. Potential risks to addressing these barriers include costs of implementing congestion pricing and cyberattacks on a better-connected grid.
  • Many data centers rely not just on diesel generators but also on the limited or inconsistent resources for supplemental generation. Potential risks to addressing these barriers include difficulties in developing a commitment mechanism to use supplemental generators, supply chain disruptions, and the reliability of on-site generation.

Recommendations

  • To address permitting delays, improve federal planning for advancing AI infrastructure development.
  • To address inefficient and costly interconnection processes, enhance transparency to improve interconnection processes.
  • To reduce underutilized transmission, provide incentives for collaborative GET adoption.
  • To address the lack of incentives for backup generation, provide incentives for supplemental generation to support demand response.

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Arciniegas Rueda, Ismael, Aisha Najera, Austin Smidt, Robin Wang, Hye Min Park, Henri van Soest, and David Gill, Expanding U.S. Net Available Power Capacity by 2030: Barriers and Solutions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3845-2.html.
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