China is facing a rapid change in its population’s age structure following dramatic declines in fertility; the fertility rate had dropped to the world’s second-lowest level in 2024. The authors of this report provide an introduction to China’s demographic trends through 2050 and an overview of historical population growth policies. They explore the implications of these trends for China’s national security and propose potential policy responses.

Fertility Decline in China and Its National Military, Structural, and Regime Security

China Population Research

Michael S. Pollard, Jennifer Bouey, Agnes Xiangzhen Wang, Rakesh Pandey

ResearchPublished Sep 22, 2025

The People’s Republic of China is facing a rapid change in its population’s age structure following a dramatic decline in fertility that began in the 1960s; by 2024, the fertility rate had dropped to the world’s second-lowest level—well below the replacement level. China’s population shrank in 2022, and the country is experiencing one of the fastest transitions to an aged society. To fully understand what China’s demographic trends mean for China’s future, the effectiveness of the country’s population policies, and the impact of those policies on China’s regional and global foreign security relationships, RAND is publishing a series of analyses focusing on the potential consequences of these demographic trends. This report, the first in the series, provides an introduction to China’s demographic trends through 2050 and an overview of historical population growth policies. The authors also explore the implications of these trends for China’s national security, and they propose potential policy responses. 

The authors discuss issues related to military security, including military size, military quality, and international alliances. The analysis of structural security considers its effects on the economy, innovation, and the population’s well-being. The analysis of regime security focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s drive for self-perpetuation. Potential policy responses discussed include efforts to increase the fertility rate, introduce immigration, address the rural-urban divide, seek technology solutions, and increase the retirement age. Not all of these approaches are deemed viable. 

Key Findings

  • China’s fertility level rapidly plunged from more than six children per woman in the 1960s, to fewer than three in the 1970s, to below two in the 1990s, to close to one in the 2020s; this is the second-lowest fertility rate in the world.
  • Because of population change, China faces a steep labor force contraction—a 28-percent decrease by 2050 from the labor force’s peak population in 2015.
  • China’s old age dependency ratio (those ages 65 and older relative to the working age population) will more than double from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.52 by 2050, increasing social support pressures.
  • There have been five stages of China’s fertility policy since 1949. Fertility had already halved before the implementation of the one-child policy during the third stage. Policies have grown increasingly more pro-natalist since 2014, but fertility levels continue to decline.
  • Military security implications stemming from demographic trends include minimal immediate concerns for the People’s Liberation Army force size but more-significant potential concerns in the decades ahead, as well as the strengthening of international alliances with Russia and Iran, partly to counter future military force size concerns.
  • Population well-being (structural security) implications include broad strain on government finances; increasing costs of social insurance programs, including pensions and health care; varied but generally negative economic effects; high youth unemployment and disengagement from competitive labor markets in a slowing economy; and mixed effects on innovation capacity.
  • Domestic governance (regime security) will be a key priority that is threatened by structural security challenges.

Recommendations

  • Quantify the short-term (less than five years), medium-term (five to ten years), and long-term (more than ten years) implications of demographic changes in China, which can include both benefits or challenges.
  • Conduct expert-driven forecasting scenario analyses on potential policies.
  • Assess the broad and long-term impacts of the one-child policy.
  • Explore the intersection of artificial intelligence and demographics.
  • Explore rural and urban differences and variation by regional registration membership.
  • Explore the caregiving burden on the one-child generation.
  • Examine shrinking kinship networks and social capital.
  • Review comparative aging dynamics.
  • Look at gender and demographics.
  • Examine intergenerational aspects of policy and institutional responses.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Pollard, Michael S., Jennifer Bouey, Agnes Xiangzhen Wang, and Rakesh Pandey, Fertility Decline in China and Its National Military, Structural, and Regime Security: China Population Research. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3372-1.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

Funding for this research was provided by a generous donation from the Cyrus and Michael Tang Foundation, which established the Tang Institute for U.S.-China Relations at RAND. This work was undertaken by RAND Global and Emerging Risks.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.