Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND

The Russia-Ukraine War: Insights from RAND

When Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it set off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

Today, as the fighting continues, casualties mount, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, what happens next remains unclear. How might the conflict evolve? What are the implications of a potential negotiated settlement? And what will it take to rebuild Ukraine once the war finally ends?

A vast body of RAND research and insights from our experts can help shed light on these questions and more.

Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022

Photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

Featured

Guidelines for Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War
Lessons from past ceasefire efforts offer actionable insights for the Russia-Ukraine war. Demilitarized zones, dispute-resolution mechanisms, third-party monitoring, and formal agreements have been associated with a more durable peace and should be included in future negotiations.

Russian Strategy and Capabilities

Research

Russia's Military After Ukraine
How might Russia try to regenerate its military capabilities and systems—and, more broadly, rethink the role of its armed forces—after the war in Ukraine ends?
Jan 16, 2025

Ukrainian Capabilities, Civilian Resistance, and the Will to Fight

Commentary

Ukrainians: Resilient and More Confident
Bolstered by growing European backing and breakthroughs in drone warfare, Ukrainians' confidence is rising. With help from the West—especially financing and high-end military and intelligence support— they believe they can end the war on their own terms.
Nov 18, 2025

Refugees and the Humanitarian Crisis

Commentary

The EU Can't Treat Ukrainian Refugees Like Short-Term Visitors
Although EU countries, communities, and citizens have been very welcoming to Ukrainian refugees, it is not enough to treat them as short-term visitors, meet their immediate humanitarian needs, and let them wait out the war. By educating and employing them instead, EU countries can enrich their own communities and support Ukraine.
Jul 24, 2023

Diplomatic and Political Dimensions

Commentary

A Comprehensive U.S. Approach Could Help End the War in Ukraine
Historically, negotiations to resolve major conflicts have been painstaking and protracted. The conflict in Ukraine needs a dedicated and sustained negotiation process involving professional mediators to effectively engage both sides and establish a framework for lasting peace.
Aug 25, 2025

U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia

Expert Insights

U.S. Options for Future Arms Control with Russia
New START, the last remaining strategic arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, was suspended in 2023 and will expire in 2026. The future of U.S.-Russia arms control seems bleak, but the United States has options it can pursue even under these circumstances.
Jul 30, 2024

U.S. research divisions

International research divisions

Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND

The Russia-Ukraine War: Insights from RAND

Featured

Guidelines for Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War

Russian Strategy and Capabilities

Russia's Military After Ukraine

Russia's Use of Extremist Narratives Against Ukraine

Russia's War Aims in Ukraine

How Russia Is Using Gold in Wartime

Logistics and Sustainment Issues of the Russian Armed Forces

What Is the Invasion of Ukraine Costing Russia?

Will to Fight of Russia's Private Military Actors

The Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” Propaganda Model: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It

Russia's Grand Strategy

Ukrainian Capabilities, Civilian Resistance, and the Will to Fight

Ukrainians: Resilient and More Confident

Ukraine's Drone-Inflicted 'Oil Sanctions' Will Impact More Than Russia's War Finances

My List of Weapons Europe Can Give Ukraine Now—Before It's Too Late

Helping Ukraine Strike Deep in Russia

Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation

Postwar Ukraine: Planning for a Successful and Secure Recovery

Ukrainian Civilians' Contributions to Resisting Russia

Why Understanding 'Will to Fight' Is Crucial

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States

Refugees and the Humanitarian Crisis

The EU Can't Treat Ukrainian Refugees Like Short-Term Visitors

Weighing Options for Ukraine's Recovery

With the Ukrainians, Avoid the Mistakes of Other Refugee Crises

For Ukrainian Refugees in Poland, Livelihood Needs Will Follow Humanitarian Ones

New Solutions Are Urgently Needed for Displaced Populations

Syrian Refugees Can Add Value to Middle Eastern Labor Markets

Win-Win Solutions for Syrian Refugees—and Their Hosts

Urgent Attention Is Needed to Improve Education for Syrian Refugee Children

Colombia's Trailblazing Model for Refugees

Diplomatic and Political Dimensions

A Comprehensive U.S. Approach Could Help End the War in Ukraine

The West's Shifting Stance on Russia Repeats History

The Day After: Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia

Time to Reassess the Costs of Euro-Atlantic Security

Ukraine Is Now a Proxy War for Asian Powers

Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine

How Finland and Sweden Bolster NATO

What If Russia Crossed the Nuclear Threshold in Ukraine?

Responding to a Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War

U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia

U.S. Options for Future Arms Control with Russia

The West's Shifting Stance on Russia Repeats History

How U.S. Rivals Think About Competitive Advantage

U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia Is Here to Stay

Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia

How Would NATO Compete with Russia?

Extending Russia: Competing for Advantageous Ground

Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces