Wars reveal new information about warfighting and can spur changes in how foreign observers prepare for future conflicts. In this report, the authors make eight novel or notable observations about the Russia-Ukraine war and forecast how these observations might translate to a potential NATO-Russia or U.S.-China war. The authors also identify broader tactical, operational, and strategic implications for U.S. policymakers.

Dispersed, Disguised, and Degradable

The Implications of the Fighting in Ukraine for Future U.S.-Involved Conflicts

Mark Hvizda, Bryan Frederick, Alisa Laufer, Alexandra T. Evans, Kristen Gunness, David A. Ochmanek

ResearchPublished May 22, 2025

Cover: Dispersed, Disguised, and Degradable
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Wars between states—particularly protracted, high-intensity conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine war), which involve the commitment of significant resources—have the capacity to reshape how states fight by providing both the opportunity and the pressure to use and adapt novel capabilities. In this report, the authors closely examine the tactical and operational levels of the fighting in Ukraine to make eight novel or notable observations about contemporary warfighting. These observations include insights about the use of uncrewed aerial and naval systems in combat, the transparent battlefield and the problem of persistent surveillance, the effectiveness of air defenses and electronic warfare against uncrewed systems, the need for low-cost expendable systems in a protracted conflict, the accessibility of commercial space-based assets for military purposes.

The authors also use these observations to forecast the character of future wars by evaluating whether and how their observations might translate to two potential U.S.-involved conflict scenarios: a war in Eastern Europe between North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and Russia and a war in the Indo-Pacific between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The authors conclude by highlighting the implications of their observations and providing recommendations for the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, and U.S. government policymakers.

Key Findings

  • The delivery of mass is changing: Large volumes of uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) could provide an additional solution to problems that were previously restricted to the domain of long-range precision fires.
  • The distinction between cruise missiles and one-way-attack UASs is blurring. While drones currently offer a unique value in their low-cost ability to loiter, technological advances will likely enhance the size, weight, power, and autonomy of UASs, blurring distinctions between them and cruise missiles.
  • Offensive operations are confronting enhanced challenges: The Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated a set of challenges arising from persistent surveillance and greater battlefield transparency, advances in command-and-control disruption capabilities, and the integration of surveillance and long-range fires to enhance the effectiveness of area defense and denial.
  • Protraction requires adaptation: Long wars demand a different set of replaceable, cost-effective capabilities that can be fielded and employed quickly. Battlefield outcomes could be dictated by production decisions at home.
  • The need to seek external support to sustain protracted conflict is not a question of “if” but “how much”: External support is an essential element for waging and sustaining a high-intensity war and could help future warfighters sustain or better adapt to protracted, high-intensity conflict.
  • Competency matters as much as, if not more than, technology: The fighting in Ukraine has demonstrated the continued importance of tactical proficiency, sound operational planning, and coherent strategy.
  • Air superiority is critical: Many of the dilemmas highlighted in Ukraine arise from the inability of either combatant to establish air superiority, which is crucial for battlefield maneuverability.

Recommendations

  • U.S. Air Forces in Europe–Air Forces Africa, the U.S. Air Force, and the U.S. Space Force should invest in the development of affordable, extended-range munitions and continue development of proliferated satellite constellations and hybrid space architectures.
  • Regarding uncrewed aerial and naval systems, the Department of Defense should prioritize the development and integration of high-volume, kinetic capabilities to counter uncrewed systems, accelerate large-scale investments in and integration of one-way-attack uncrewed systems, and evaluate the potential for uncrewed systems to enhance the effectiveness of naval minefields.
  • The Department of Defense should also evaluate the utility and robustness of concepts for sensing and targeting enemy surface forces in highly contested environments, emphasize decentralized decisionmaking in exercises and training, and identify priority munition systems for scaled-up, rapid production in the event of a protracted conflict.
  • The U.S. government should (1) sustain and focus defense industrial base investments to build capacity for priority munition systems that are needed for protracted conflict and (2) plan to deny U.S. and allied commercial space assets to adversaries.

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Hvizda, Mark, Bryan Frederick, Alisa Laufer, Alexandra T. Evans, Kristen Gunness, and David A. Ochmanek, Dispersed, Disguised, and Degradable: The Implications of the Fighting in Ukraine for Future U.S.-Involved Conflicts. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3141-2.html.
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This research was commissioned by the U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE)–Air Forces Africa (AFAFRICA) Plans and Programs Directorate (A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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