Research & Commentary

Expert Insights

May 4, 2026

Contingency Frameworks for Future U.S.-China Cooperation on AI Assurance and Security: Preserving Strategic Optionality

The author aims to inform artificial intelligence contingency planning under the premise that preserving strategic optionality for future U.S.-China engagement serves U.S. interests. He proposes five potential lines of effort for doing so.
Expert Insights

May 4, 2026

Open-Weight AI Models Require Proportional Evaluation Approaches

Open-weight AI models (OWMs) introduce distinct risk factors for which existing evaluation practices, largely designed for closed-weight model deployment, fail to account. The authors propose proportional evaluation approaches for OWMs.
Apr 30, 2026

Multi-Ecosystem Competition in Artificial Intelligence Adoption and Diffusion

The author provides a theoretical framework for understanding artificial intelligence (AI) diffusion dynamics in the presence of competing technologies with heterogeneous value propositions.
Research Summary

Apr 29, 2026

How Much More Power Can the U.S. Grid Provide for AI? Projections and Policy Implications for 2030

A team of RAND researchers estimated how much additional power capacity the United States is likely to have by 2030 by translating planned electricity supply resources into a common measure of reliable capacity. This brief summarizes the results.
Expert Insights

Apr 29, 2026

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

This paper presents an overview and observations on Breakwater, a game that explores instability risks in the U.S.-China rivalry and race to artificial general intelligence.
Expert Insights

Apr 27, 2026

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

The authors describe an artificial general intelligence (AGI) Rideout strategy to avoid geopolitical risks in the race toward and transition to AGI. The strategy prioritizes deterring conflicts and increasing U.S. tech infrastructure resilience.
Expert Insights

Apr 27, 2026

Integrating Forecasting with Gaming: Building an Analytic Framework for Decision Advantage

This paper summarizes how integrating forecasting methodologies with gaming and other scenario-based analytic games can strengthen decisionmaking, learning, and strategic assessment within U.S. defense and related organizations.
Article

Apr 23, 2026

Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?

China's fertility decline could strain its government, undermine its security, and sap its economic energy. That may seem like an advantage for the United States, but U.S. fertility rates are slipping, too.
Research

Apr 22, 2026

Simpler Is Better for Autograders: Toward Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks

A simple rubric-based autograder outperformed more-complex large language model grading methods across benchmarks, often matching or beating nonexpert human graders while cutting down evaluation time and cost.
Research

Apr 20, 2026

A Formal Model of How Artificial Intelligence Erodes Human Agency

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems assume more decisionmaking roles in government, the economy, and society, a question emerges: Will humans retain the capacity to shape collective outcomes?
Research

Apr 13, 2026

Infinite Potential—Insights from the Business and Civil Society Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises

This report describes a series of exercises run with the Business and Civil Society scenario on the Infinite Potential platform. Players took on roles as business and civil society leaders and tackled challenges arising from artificial intelligence.
Research

Apr 10, 2026

A Flawed Formula for Peace in Ukraine: Trump Can’t End a War With a Real Estate Transaction

U.S. talks to end the Ukraine war collapsed due to an unrealistic land‑for‑security deal. Ending the conflict demands credible commitments, self‑defense for Ukraine, and stable Russia‑NATO relations.

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Research & Commentary

Featured

Six Ways AI Could Cause the Next Big War, and Why It Probably Won't

Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?

A Formal Model of How Artificial Intelligence Erodes Human Agency

Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis

All Global and Emerging Risks Research & Commentary

Error

Contingency Frameworks for Future U.S.-China Cooperation on AI Assurance and Security: Preserving Strategic Optionality

Open-Weight AI Models Require Proportional Evaluation Approaches

Multi-Ecosystem Competition in Artificial Intelligence Adoption and Diffusion

How Much More Power Can the U.S. Grid Provide for AI? Projections and Policy Implications for 2030

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

Integrating Forecasting with Gaming: Building an Analytic Framework for Decision Advantage

Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?

Simpler Is Better for Autograders: Toward Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks

A Formal Model of How Artificial Intelligence Erodes Human Agency

Infinite Potential—Insights from the Business and Civil Society Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises

A Flawed Formula for Peace in Ukraine: Trump Can’t End a War With a Real Estate Transaction

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RAND Headquarters

Research & Commentary

Featured

Six Ways AI Could Cause the Next Big War, and Why It Probably Won't

Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?

A Formal Model of How Artificial Intelligence Erodes Human Agency

Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis

All Global and Emerging Risks Research & Commentary

Error

Contingency Frameworks for Future U.S.-China Cooperation on AI Assurance and Security: Preserving Strategic Optionality

Open-Weight AI Models Require Proportional Evaluation Approaches

Multi-Ecosystem Competition in Artificial Intelligence Adoption and Diffusion

How Much More Power Can the U.S. Grid Provide for AI? Projections and Policy Implications for 2030

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

Integrating Forecasting with Gaming: Building an Analytic Framework for Decision Advantage

Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?

Simpler Is Better for Autograders: Toward Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks

A Formal Model of How Artificial Intelligence Erodes Human Agency

Infinite Potential—Insights from the Business and Civil Society Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises

A Flawed Formula for Peace in Ukraine: Trump Can’t End a War With a Real Estate Transaction

Oops! An unexpected error has occurred.

Infinite Potential—Insights from the Business and Civil Society Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises