The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

An all-out race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI), driven by expectations that the first state to achieve AGI will enjoy an overwhelming and enduring first-mover advantage over its geopolitical rivals, poses serious national security risks for the United States. Drawing inspiration from strategic developments that stabilized the superpower nuclear rivalry during the Cold War, the authors describe an AGI Rideout strategy that seeks to deter artificial intelligence (AI)–fueled conflict and avoid disrupting U.S. technological progress by increasing the resilience of the AI ecosystem and developing capabilities to counter rapidly evolving adversary AI-enabled military capabilities that could lead to aggression and escalation. AGI Rideout is not a strategy for winning the race to advanced AI or restricting the pace of progress toward it. Instead, the authors argue that the United States should prioritize measures to avoid strategic disaster on the path toward AGI, regardless of the course it takes, and maximize decisionmakers' long-term options in a world with advanced AI.