Integrating Forecasting with Gaming

In this paper, authors explore how integrating structured forecasting methodologies within gaming, tabletop exercises, and other scenario-based analytic games can strengthen decisionmaking, learning, and strategic assessment within U.S. defense and other national security organizations. The authors draw on findings from previous RAND research efforts and other relevant academic work focused on wargaming, forecasting, and analytic learning to propose an interoperability framework that links the narrative and experiential strengths of gaming with the rigor and empirical validation offered through probabilistic forecasting. The authors demonstrate how forecasting methods can enhance existing wargaming practices by advancing measurement, calibration, and evaluability within the broader wargaming enterprise. This discussion also situates forecasting within ongoing professional debates that frame wargaming as an art, science, and disciplined craft, connecting creative design with transparent analytic practice.