Expert Insights

May 4, 2026

Contingency Frameworks for Future U.S.-China Cooperation on AI Assurance and Security: Preserving Strategic Optionality

The author aims to inform artificial intelligence contingency planning under the premise that preserving strategic optionality for future U.S.-China engagement serves U.S. interests. He proposes five potential lines of effort for doing so.

Jared Mondschein
May 4, 2026

Open-Weight AI Models Require Proportional Evaluation Approaches

Open-weight AI models (OWMs) introduce distinct risk factors for which existing evaluation practices, largely designed for closed-weight model deployment, fail to account. The authors propose proportional evaluation approaches for OWMs.

Patricia Paskov, Christopher Rodriguez, Sunishchal Dev, Stephen Casper
Apr 29, 2026

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

This paper presents an overview and observations on Breakwater, a game that explores instability risks in the U.S.-China rivalry and race to artificial general intelligence.

Abby Doll, Karl P. Mueller
Apr 27, 2026

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

The authors describe an artificial general intelligence (AGI) Rideout strategy to avoid geopolitical risks in the race toward and transition to AGI. The strategy prioritizes deterring conflicts and increasing U.S. tech infrastructure resilience.

David R. Frelinger, Karl P. Mueller
Apr 27, 2026

Integrating Forecasting with Gaming: Building an Analytic Framework for Decision Advantage

This paper summarizes how integrating forecasting methodologies with gaming and other scenario-based analytic games can strengthen decisionmaking, learning, and strategic assessment within U.S. defense and related organizations.

David Stebbins, Gregory Smith, Richard S. Girven
Apr 24, 2026

When Economic Security Meets Economic Statecraft: Principles for a New Era

Economic security policy and economic statecraft—once parallel domains—are now colliding. The authors trace this collision through five phases of U.S. policy since 2001 and propose four principles to guide policymakers in this new era.

Rachel Lyngaas, Howard J. Shatz, Isabella Whitney, Jung-Ju Lee
Apr 24, 2026

Realizing the Promise of the Drone Revolution: Crosscutting Insights from RAND Research for the U.S. Department of War's Drone Dominance Efforts and Beyond

This paper highlights key technological and other trends driving the drone revolution in the military and civilian sectors. The authors outline obstacles and next steps that the U.S. Department of War can take to leverage these developments.

Jan Osburg, Emily Lathrop, James Ryseff, Matthew Fay, Will Shumate, M. Scott Bond
Apr 16, 2026

AI Implications for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense Policy and Programs: A Strategic Analytic Research Agenda

Artificial intelligence is reshaping chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear deterrence, posing new risks and opportunities. This paper outlines a roadmap to guide research and policy on challenges amid rising global technological rivalry.

Rebecca K.C. Hersman, Lauren Blackwelder, John V. Parachini
Mar 31, 2026

Research Security in Science and Technology

This paper describes research security and provides a framework to aid researchers, research institutions, and research funders in identifying, assessing, and managing risks associated with global scientific collaborations.

Christopher G. Pernin, Cortney Weinbaum, Fiona Quimbre, Shanshan Mei, Shay Hershkovitz, Libby Weaver, Catherine Kish
Mar 26, 2026

Open Models, Soft Power, and the Spectrum of U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Competition

The authors analyze the United States' and China's respective artificial intelligence (AI) action plans, how AI companies in both countries approach open-source AI models, and the implications for U.S. soft power.

Owen J. Daniels, Hanna Dohmen
Mar 25, 2026

Toward a Grand Strategy for AI Resilience

In this paper, the authors argue that the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence is likely to change society in significant and potentially threatening ways and that a policy strategy centered on resilience is the best path forward.

Asad Ramzanali, Ganesh Sitaraman
Mar 23, 2026

Justice for those vulnerable to exploitation

The third in the Justice for All series, this paper reflects on the preventing the exploitation of vulnerable people through modern slavery.

Lucy Strang

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Expert Insights

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Contingency Frameworks for Future U.S.-China Cooperation on AI Assurance and Security: Preserving Strategic Optionality

Open-Weight AI Models Require Proportional Evaluation Approaches

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

Integrating Forecasting with Gaming: Building an Analytic Framework for Decision Advantage

When Economic Security Meets Economic Statecraft: Principles for a New Era

Realizing the Promise of the Drone Revolution: Crosscutting Insights from RAND Research for the U.S. Department of War's Drone Dominance Efforts and Beyond

AI Implications for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense Policy and Programs: A Strategic Analytic Research Agenda

Research Security in Science and Technology

Open Models, Soft Power, and the Spectrum of U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Competition

Toward a Grand Strategy for AI Resilience

Justice for those vulnerable to exploitation

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Expert Insights

Error

Contingency Frameworks for Future U.S.-China Cooperation on AI Assurance and Security: Preserving Strategic Optionality

Open-Weight AI Models Require Proportional Evaluation Approaches

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

Integrating Forecasting with Gaming: Building an Analytic Framework for Decision Advantage

When Economic Security Meets Economic Statecraft: Principles for a New Era

Realizing the Promise of the Drone Revolution: Crosscutting Insights from RAND Research for the U.S. Department of War's Drone Dominance Efforts and Beyond

AI Implications for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense Policy and Programs: A Strategic Analytic Research Agenda

Research Security in Science and Technology

Open Models, Soft Power, and the Spectrum of U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Competition

Toward a Grand Strategy for AI Resilience

Justice for those vulnerable to exploitation

Oops! An unexpected error has occurred.