In this report, the authors examine the agricultural security risks to crop production in the U.S. Corn Belt, the backbone of the United States' food, feed, and biofuel industries. By identifying key threat categories and potential impacts on the Corn Belt's agricultural industries, the authors aim to support data-driven decisionmaking for risk mitigation, preparedness, and coordinated response across the public and private sectors.

Agricultural Security Considerations for the U.S. Corn Belt

Reviewing Key Threats and Mitigation Strategies for Bioresiliency

Tyler Hoard, Adeline E. Williams, David Luckey

ResearchPublished Apr 27, 2026

In this report, the authors examine the agricultural security risks to crop production in the U.S. Corn Belt, the backbone of the United States' food, feed, and biofuel industries. This region in the heart of the Midwest faces evolving threats that are shaped by biological factors, such as plant pathogens and pests; environmental stressors, such as drought and climate variability; societal and technological shifts that influence production, such as changes in supply chains; and policy frameworks. These interacting factors affect agricultural security, domestic stability, and global trade.

By identifying key threat categories and potential impacts on the Corn Belt's agricultural industries, the authors aim to support data-driven decisionmaking for risk mitigation, preparedness, and coordinated response across the public and private sectors. This report contributes to building a proactive and integrated approach to safeguarding U.S. crop production against emerging biological, environmental, and societal risks.

Key Findings

  • Early identification prevents pests and pathogens from devastating U.S. crops. Such identification would address agricultural threats that enter the United States through either legal or illicit means and outbreaks that originate from within the country.
  • An effective defense prevents harmful plant pests and pathogens from entering the country, whether through legal trade or illicit transport. A major focus area for effective agricultural defense would be fortifying the locations where actors can introduce threats from outside the country, including border crossings and import locations.
  • Reducing the likelihood of an attempted adversarial action that affects the U.S. agricultural industry further secures crop production. Increasing deterrence could reduce the likelihood of intentional malign actions from actors within the United States and actors entering the country.
  • Threat mitigation efforts require rapid containment, mitigation, and recovery following a breach in agricultural security, whether the origin of the breach was from within or outside the United States.
  • Taking steps to ensure that U.S. agriculture can sustain the shock of an emergency, regardless of the origin of the emergency, is important for operational continuity and rapid recovery.

Recommendations

  • Expand human pathogen surveillance programs to include agricultural pathogen detection.
  • Create a competitive funding mechanism to accelerate the development of field-deployable crop biosensors.
  • Expand artificial intelligence–assisted screening and molecular detection capabilities at border crossings and import locations.
  • Develop a cybersecurity compliance assistance program tailored for agricultural producers.
  • Invest in multi-domain attribution capabilities that are tailored to agricultural attack scenarios.
  • Expand participation in the Food and Agriculture—Information Sharing and Analysis Center across the agricultural sector.
  • Develop an interregional agricultural emergency coordination protocol within the National Incident Management System framework.
  • Design and pilot an emergency communication system that can reliably reach private agricultural stakeholders during a crisis.
  • Establish a U.S. Department of Agriculture rapid-response research funding mechanism modeled on the National Science Foundation's Rapid Response Research program.
  • Expand workforce development programs that train current and future agricultural professionals in biosecurity, cybersecurity, and climate adaptation.

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Hoard, Tyler, Adeline E. Williams, and David Luckey, Agricultural Security Considerations for the U.S. Corn Belt: Reviewing Key Threats and Mitigation Strategies for Bioresiliency. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4836-1.html.
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Funding for this effort provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from division operations. The work was conducted with the RAND Rural America Partnership within RAND Education, Employment, and Infrastructure.

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