Innovative approaches to wildfire management could help make catastrophic fires a thing of the past.
Wildfires in the United States have become more frequent and more destructive. Across the nation, wildfires costing billions of dollars are putting lives, homes, and ecosystems at risk. These disasters create enormous strain on federal land managers, state forestry and fire agencies, local and tribal governments, nonprofits, insurers, utilities, private companies, and fire-exposed communities.
Fortunately, new approaches to wildfire management, driven by innovative technologies, could help make catastrophic fires a thing of the past.
RAND researchers drew on acceleration lessons from four U.S. federal technological innovation agencies whose job is to move new ideas into use:
RAND’s analysis has identified a new federal innovation-acceleration coordinating entity as the most straightforward way to address challenges in the innovation system. In particular, structuring such an agency as a network administrative organization—an administrative entity that governs and convenes but doesn’t control processes—would provide an independent and neutral backbone that can build trust across the complex wildfire technology innovation system, scale coordination, and accelerate technology adoption. Researchers also identified a set of core activities the coordination entity should oversee based on the needs of the innovation system and promising practices in other innovation organizations.
Wildfire is now a systemic risk in the United States. Fire seasons have become longer, and nearly one-third of U.S. households—roughly 50 million—sit in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where development meets flammable vegetation. And the danger is not confined to the West—for example, portions of the Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida all face concentrated wildfire risk.
More than one-third of the U.S. population and one-third of U.S. buildings are in counties with high wildfire risk.
The consequences of these disasters extend far beyond the fire line. Large fires disrupt local businesses, hurt property values, damage transportation and utility networks, and shift public dollars from other uses to emergency response and recovery. As catastrophic losses mount, insurance providers restrict coverage or raise rates, pushing more households onto last-resort insurance plans and, in some areas, threatening mortgage availability and housing supply.
Technology has the potential to provide significant support across the wildfire management cycle, including mitigation, prevention, and recovery.
Satellite data and modeling can prescribe thinning and fire and robotic systems can clear vegetation and create firebreaks.
A Burn Bot machine, used to safely create firebreaks, being operated in a field.
Photo by Burn Bot Inc.
An AI-enabled wildfire sensor network can see and “smell” wildfires and provide real-time data to emergency responders.
A satellite image of California's Park Fire and smoke on July 26, 2024.
Image by NOAA Satellites
Uncrewed aircraft and satellites can provide situational awareness of ongoing fires.
Two USDA Forest Service employees operate a monitoring drone during a prescribed burn in Inyo National Forest.
Photo by Lisa Cox/USDA Forest Service
Improved safety gear can protect firefighters and autonomous vehicles can go where humans can’t safely go during response.
Modern firefighting robot with a hose for penetration into dangerous areas.
Photo by PaulGulea / Getty Images
Three major actors shape innovation in wildfire management and resilience: innovators that create, accelerators that advance and disseminate, and end users who apply the results.
Organizations or individuals that develop, test, and refine new solutions or practices.
Organizations or individuals that provide money, ideas, connections, and governance.
Wildfire stakeholders who use technology products.
The existing wildfire technology innovation pipeline has weaknesses that hurt both technological advances and impede scaling to users. A critical challenge is the fragmentation of wildfire management organizations, which prevents strategic, scalable innovation. Organizations such as federal forest and land management agencies, state and local fire and emergency management departments, and others have distributed authorities and operate with different time horizons, budgets, and data. This fragmentation can lead to
In addition to these silo issues, the number of wildfire technology innovators is growing, making it difficult to track what each actor is doing. In the acceleration space, venues and innovation champions that help push forward funding and adoption are primarily ad hoc. These conditions limit strategic coordination that could accelerate innovation.
