The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER)

User Guide for Version 1.0

Jim Mignano, Gary J. Briggs, Nancy Huerta, Edward Geist, Dahlia Anne Goldfeld

ToolPublished Dec 16, 2025

The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER) is an agent-based simulation framework designed to explore the intersections between perception, cognition, and decisionmaking processes that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

ROMANCER is implemented as a suite of interconnected Python modules and tools, developed to enhance the understanding of nuclear escalation risk and to provide a structured and repeatable framework for analyzing decisionmaking processes in high-stakes situations. ROMANCER serves to aid U.S. planning and decisionmaking. It is not designed to predict the responses of specific leaders or the outcomes of specific scenarios.

This user guide serves as a companion to the ROMANCER codebase and is structured to provide a comprehensive understanding of ROMANCER, from initial setup to advanced use and development.

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Mignano, Jim, Gary J. Briggs, Nancy Huerta, Edward Geist, and Dahlia Anne Goldfeld, The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER): User Guide for Version 1.0. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA2673-2.html.
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The research was sponsored by Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) A5/8 and conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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