This report presents RAND’s evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance fiscal year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative, a permanent supportive housing program that aims to address the interconnected challenges of homelessness, behavioral health conditions, and repeated incarceration in Pima County, Arizona.

Evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance Fiscal Year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative

Maya Buenaventura, Roland Neil, Kara Jia, Sarah B. Hunter

ResearchPublished Mar 23, 2026

This report presents RAND’s evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance fiscal year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative (SCA-PFS), a permanent supportive housing program that aims to address the interconnected challenges of homelessness, behavioral health conditions, and repeated incarceration in Pima County, Arizona. The evaluation builds on lessons from RAND’s 2019–2021 pilot study and examines the program’s evolution under a performance-based contracting model supported by the Bureau of Justice Assistance.

Key Findings

  • Pima SCA-PFS is an evidence-based program funded by Bureau of Justice Assistance grant funds and supported by local partners. The program features robust intake processes, individualized case management, and strong partnerships with landlords and health care providers. Although program implementers have shown resilience and adaptability, they continue to face external challenges.
  • The numbers of referrals and eligible Pima County residents continue to outpace the available supply of permanent supportive housing. This persistent gap highlights the importance of improved data integration and need estimation to support effective resource allocation and program planning.
  • Program participation is associated with substantial reductions in criminal justice involvement and related costs.
  • Fewer than half of participants received permanent supportive housing during the evaluation period because of limited voucher availability and other system barriers. As a result, findings related to participant outcomes likely reflect conservative estimates of the program’s impact.
  • Pima SCA-PFS uses tiered, contract-linked performance metrics for both jail avoidance and housing stability. These metrics are consistent with national best practices and provide a structured framework for monitoring provider performance and incentivizing positive outcomes.

Recommendations

  • Strengthen data integration: Formalize data-sharing agreements and improve linkage across Pima County justice, housing, and health systems to enable more-comprehensive tracking of participant outcomes and service utilization.
  • Enhance evaluation rigor: To rigorously determine the return on investment of Pima SCA-PFS, implement quasi-experimental or randomized designs using waitlisted individuals or other appropriate comparison groups to strengthen causal inference regarding program impacts.
  • Refine performance metrics: Add indicators of participant well-being and system impact, such as frequency of emergency room visits, employment status, or behavioral health engagement, and extend the observation window for housing stability and recidivism outcomes.
  • Address system barriers: Work with community partners to address persistent barriers to housing access, including the impact of voucher freezes, limited affordable housing stock, and restrictive landlord policies.
  • Expand and improve the sample size: This study examined outcomes among individuals who were enrolled in the program. However, fewer than half of these individuals received permanent supportive housing. Therefore, the specific impact of the primary intervention, permanent supportive housing, is limited. A longer period and increased permanent supportive housing placement levels are needed to specifically examine the impact of permanent supportive housing rather than overall program enrollment.
  • Sustain stakeholder engagement: Maintain regular engagement with program implementers, county agencies, and community stakeholders to ensure that program design and evaluation remain responsive to local needs and evolving best practices.

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Buenaventura, Maya, Roland Neil, Kara Jia, and Sarah B. Hunter, Evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance Fiscal Year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4745-1.html.
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This work was conducted in the Infrastructure and Justice Program of RAND Education, Employment, and Infrastructure.

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