This report summarizes the results of six runs of the Cyber Surprise scenario, where players confronted the sudden deployment of a powerful cyber-artificial intelligence capability by the People’s Republic of China. Across the exercises, two key themes emerged in players’ discussion and decisionmaking: the desire from players for aggressive action in response to sudden changes in the balance of cyber capability and uncertainty about how best to engage allies and partners in such a confrontation.

Infinite Potential—Insights from the Cyber Surprise Scenario

Post-Series Scenario Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises

Gregory Smith, George Hage, Chad Heitzenrater, Matt Chessen, Richard S. Girven

ResearchPublished Mar 9, 2026

RAND has been running “Day After AGI” (artificial general intelligence) exercises within the Infinite Potential platform to explore a policy problem unique to AGI: The potential impacts of AGI are so large, and yet so uncertain in how specifically they will manifest, that it is unlikely that the U.S. government will be able to fully address the challenges of AGI primarily through preemptive policymaking. These exercises are designed to explore potential responses to such crises, and what can still be done to prepare today despite this uncertainty.

This report summarizes the results of six runs of the Cyber Surprise scenario, where participants confronted the sudden deployment of a powerful cyber-AI capability by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against the United States. Participants included RAND analysts alongside current or former U.S. government principals and staff. Leveraging the different experiences of the participants, the authors identify a set of common issues, capabilities, and playbooks that might address the scenario at hand.

Key Findings

Participants recommended aggressive action when presented with advanced PRC cyber-AI capabilities that outmatched those of the United Stated.

  • Participants viewed the scenario as a “use-it-or-lose-it” situation and recommended that the U.S. government respond accordingly.
  • Suggested areas for action include strategies for acquiring the PRC cyber-AI model, disrupting its use, and developing equivalent U.S. cyber-AI capabilities.

Participants expressed that engagement with partners and allies would be critical in such a scenario, but were uncertain about the best means for engaging allies and partners in such a confrontation

  • Participants agreed on the importance of working with key allies to coordinate an effective response to the offensive use of cyber-AI technology.
  • However, participants raised important questions about how, when, and to what extent to engage allied nations, focusing in particular on the question of what to reveal and what to conceal in terms of U.S. cyber-AI capabilities.

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Smith, Gregory, George Hage, Chad Heitzenrater, Matt Chessen, and Richard S. Girven, Infinite Potential—Insights from the Cyber Surprise Scenario: Post-Series Scenario Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4626-1.html.
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