The Royal British Legion (RBL) commissioned RAND Europe to produce the first detailed forecasts of the size and demographics of the UK Armed Forces community to 2045. Designed to inform the RBL in developing their strategy, this work highlights the changing size and demographics of the community, which is being shaped by new patterns of service and family life and will become increasingly demographically diverse and intergenerational.

Forecasting the size and demographics of the UK Armed Forces community

Catherine Galley, Linda Slapakova

ResearchPublished Mar 23, 2026

The UK Armed Forces community represents a sizeable and diverse population of people who are connected to the UK Armed Forces either through their own Service or the Service of a family member. Looking out to 2045, it is expected that this community will significantly evolve in its size and demographics. However, precise estimates of the changing size of different groups within the Armed Forces Community have been lacking.

The Royal British Legion (RBL) therefore commissioned RAND Europe to produce the first detailed forecasts of the size and demographics of the UK Armed Forces community to 2045. This work was designed to help RBL develop its strategy in a way that recognises and responds to change in the size and demographics of the community.

This report highlights how the size and demographics of the Armed Forces community are likely to change out to 2045. The size of the Serving community will likely not change substantially but will become more demographically diverse. The size of the Serving community will also be shaped by new patterns of service and family life, including anticipated changes to facilitate easier movement between Regular and Reserve service. In contrast, significant change is estimated in the size of the veteran community, as the World War II and National Service generations pass away, leaving a veteran community that is smaller, more demographically diverse and increasingly intergenerational, with a rise in the number of veterans aged under 30 years old.

Key Findings

  • The size of the serving UK Armed Forces community is not likely to change substantially out to 2045, though the size of this community is strongly driven by policy and targets set for the recruitment and overall trained strength of the Armed Forces.
  • The serving community is likely to become more demographically diverse with increases in the number and proportion of female and non-UK personnel.
  • The size and demographics of the veteran community living in Great Britain is likely to change substantially. As the World War II and National Service generations pass away, the number of veterans aged over 80, and the total number of veterans, will decrease substantially.
  • Out to 2045, the proportion of working age veterans will likely increase above 50 per cent and the absolute number of veterans aged under 30 will also increase. There will likely also be an increase in the proportion of female and ethnic minority veterans.

Recommendations

  • Service providers should be mindful of the significant uncertainty in the Defence environment, including with regards to personnel moving between different spectrums of service and changes to operational requirements.
  • Service providers should ensure that their services are acceptable, accessible and inclusive for all beneficiaries as the diversity of the Armed Forces community increases. In particular, those supporting the veteran community need to align services with the support needs of a multi-generational population, and rebalance resources to meet the needs of veterans in different age groups and at different life stages.

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: The Royal British Legion
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web-Only
  • Year: 2026
  • Pages: 63
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA4506-1
  • Document Number: RR-A4506-1

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Galley, Catherine and Linda Slapakova, Forecasting the size and demographics of the UK Armed Forces community. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4506-1.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

This research was prepared for the Royal British Legion and conducted by the Defence, Security and Justice Program within RAND Europe.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.