This report, in its fifth edition, synthesizes available scientific evidence for the effects of various firearm policies on firearm injuries and deaths, violent crime, suicides, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. The authors highlight policies whose effects are more rigorously and reliably demonstrated by existing research, as well as areas in which better information could contribute to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

The Science of Gun Policy

A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Fifth Edition

Rosanna Smart, Andrew R. Morral, James P. Murphy, Rupa Jose, Amanda Charbonneau, Terry L. Schell

ResearchPublished Jan 29, 2026

Cover: The Science of Gun Policy
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Includes Appendix B: Source Data Used to Produce the Forest Plot Figures; Appendix C: Search Strategy Annex

In this report, part of RAND's Gun Policy in America initiative, researchers systematically review the scientific literature that has examined the likely effects of various gun laws. In the fifth edition of this report, the authors incorporate more-recent research in their synthesis of the available scientific data regarding the effects of 18 state firearm policies on firearm injuries and deaths, violent crime, suicides, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. By highlighting where scientific evidence is accumulating, the authors hope to build consensus around a shared set of facts that have been established through a transparent, nonpartisan, and impartial review process. In so doing, they also illuminate areas in which more and better information could make important contributions to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

Learn more about the project and explore the data.

Key Findings

Scientific evidence on gun policies' effects supports several conclusions, but much remains inconclusive

  • Of more than 200 combinations of policies and outcomes, many have received little methodologically rigorous investigation. Notably, research into five of the examined outcomes is either unavailable or almost entirely inconclusive, and three of these five outcomes represent issues of particular concern to gun owners or gun industry stakeholders.
  • Available evidence supports the conclusion that child-access prevention (CAP) laws, or safe-storage laws, reduce self-inflicted fatal or nonfatal firearm injuries — including unintentional and intentional self-injuries — among youth. Evidence also supports the conclusion that such laws reduce firearm homicides among youth.
  • There is supportive evidence that stand-your-ground laws are associated with increases in firearm homicides and in the total number of homicides.
  • There is supportive evidence that shall-issue laws increase total homicides, firearm homicides, and other violent crime.
  • There is supportive evidence that increasing the minimum age required to purchase a firearm above the threshold set by federal law can reduce firearm suicides among young people.
  • There is moderate evidence that waiting periods reduce firearm suicides and total homicides and limited evidence that they reduce total suicides and firearm homicides.
  • There is moderate evidence that dealer background checks reduce firearm homicides and moderate evidence that background checks on both dealer and private sales reduce total homicides.
  • There is moderate evidence that state laws establishing firearm prohibitions for individuals subject to domestic violence restraining orders decrease total and firearm-related intimate partner homicides.
  • No studies meeting the authors' inclusion criteria have examined the effects of laws requiring the reporting of lost or stolen firearms or of laws allowing armed staff in kindergarten through grade 12 schools.

Recommendations

  • States without CAP laws should consider adopting them as a strategy to reduce firearm injuries and deaths among youth.
  • States implementing CAP or other safe-storage laws should support data collection and investigation of the mechanisms by which CAP laws affect injury outcomes.
  • States with stand-your-ground laws should consider repealing or amending them as a strategy for reducing firearm homicides.
  • States with shall-issue or permitless-carry laws should consider whether other regulations might ensure that the effects of concealed-carry laws are aligned with public safety.
  • States should consider raising the minimum age to purchase firearms and ammunition above the level of federal requirements as a strategy to reduce firearm suicides among youths.
  • States without laws prohibiting gun ownership while individuals are subject to domestic violence restraining orders should consider passing such laws as a strategy to reduce total and firearm-related intimate partner homicides.
  • States that do not require background checks for the private sale or transfer of firearms should consider mandating such checks as a strategy for reducing total and firearm homicide rates.
  • To improve understanding of outcomes of critical concern to many in gun policy debates, research sponsors should support studies examining the effects of gun policies on a wider set of outcomes, including crime, defensive gun use, hunting and sport shooting, police shootings, and the gun industry.
  • Researchers, reviewers, academics, and science reporters should ensure that new analyses of the effects of gun policies improve on earlier studies by persuasively addressing the methodological limitations of these studies.

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Smart, Rosanna, Andrew R. Morral, James P. Murphy, Rupa Jose, Amanda Charbonneau, and Terry L. Schell, The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Fifth Edition. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4360-2.html.
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This research was supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures and conducted in the Infrastructure and Justice Program of RAND Education, Employment, and Infrastructure.

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