U.S. Adults’ Perceptions of Six Possible Global Threats and Hazards

As evidenced during the coronavirus pandemic, how humans perceive and react to risk has significant consequences. Therefore, understanding public perceptions of global catastrophes could help the U.S. government set priorities for preparing the country and protecting it from such catastrophes (Parker, 2022).

In this brief report, we present the public’s perceptions of six categories of risk using data from a survey fielded to a nationally representative sample of 8,793 adults from the RAND American Life Panel. The results reflect respondents’ perceptions of risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI), asteroids and comets hitting Earth, severe changes to Earth’s climate, nuclear war, severe pandemics, and supervolcanoes.

Members of the panel are drawn using probability sampling methods, and the data are weighted to reflect the demographic diversity of the U.S. population. The survey was fielded in May and June 2025. Note that the survey took place before June 21, 2025, when the United States launched a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Readers should interpret our findings with caution because perceptions of the risk of nuclear war may have been altered by this event. All of the data presented in the figures, as well as standard errors, confidence intervals, and sample sizes, can be found in the appendix.

U.S. adults are most concerned about harms from AI, followed by nuclear war, severe pandemics, and severe changes to Earth’s climate

We asked panel members to report their level of concern about six threats and hazards that could pose risks of global catastrophe. We offered three options in their evaluations of each risk: (1) very concerned, (2) somewhat concerned, and (3) not concerned. Figure 1 shows that U.S. adults are most concerned about harms from AI, with 81 percent reporting that they were either very or somewhat concerned. After AI, the threats and hazards generating the most concern were nuclear war, severe pandemics, and severe changes to Earth’s climate.

Three-fourths of adults believe that the risks of harm from human-induced threats and hazards are increasing

Next, we asked panel members the following question: “How do you believe the risks from the following threats or hazards are changing?” We gave panel members three options: (1) increasing, (2) neither increasing nor decreasing, and (3) decreasing. Results from this question are shown in Figure 2.

A majority of adults perceive that risks from the three threats and hazards induced by human activity are increasing: 76 percent believe that the risk of harms from AI is increasing, 64 percent believe that the risk of severe changes to Earth’s climate is increasing, and 53 percent believe that the risk of nuclear war is increasing. In results not shown, less than 10 percent of U.S. adults responded that the risk of any of the six threats and hazards is decreasing.

Appendix

Tables 1 and 2 provide data used in the corresponding figures in this report.

References

• Parker, Andrew M., “The Need to Invest in Social Science Infrastructure to Address Emerging Crises,” in Aaron B. Frank and Elizabeth M. Bartels, eds., Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches, RAND Corporation, RR-A1275-1, 2022. As of October 10, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1275-1.html
• Pollard, Michael S., and Matthew D. Baird, The RAND American Life Panel: Technical Description, RAND Corporation, RR-1651, 2017. As of October 10, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1651.html

Topics

• Artificial Intelligence
• Emergency Preparedness
• Global Climate Change
• Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
• Pandemic
• Public Health Preparedness