The authors analyze certain Middle Eastern and North African countries' economic aspirations by examining their governments' long-term vision documents. Despite sustained high hydrocarbon revenues and deepening global integration, much of the region has experienced economic stagnation. The authors assess how countries might realistically pursue and attain their stated goals of high growth, economic diversification, and broader opportunity.

Visions to Reality

Achieving the Middle East and North Africa's Economic Ambitions

Caleb Lucas, Daniel Egel, Jeffrey Martini

ResearchPublished Dec 15, 2025

In this report, the authors analyze the economic aspirations of Middle Eastern and North African countries by examining the long-term vision documents that many of the region's governments have issued. Despite sustained periods of both high revenues from hydrocarbon production and deepening global integration, much of the region has experienced economic stagnation over the past decade. Within this context, the authors assess how countries might realistically pursue and attain their stated goals of achieving high economic growth and diversification, as well as generating broader economic opportunity.

To evaluate these aspirations, the authors used official vision documents that regional governments published to generate two competing visions of prosperity: a state-centered vision, emphasizing top-down economic management and state-led growth, and a citizen-centered vision, emphasizing inclusivity and broader citizen engagement in economic life. The authors then identified a set of potentially high-impact policy options — female labor force participation, property rights reform, infrastructure investment, regional free trade, and immigration reform — and simulated their potential contribution to economic growth under each of the two visions.

The authors' analysis is intended to inform policymakers in the region, as well as international stakeholders, about pragmatic pathways for achieving long-term economic transformation.

Key Findings

  • Meeting the region's ambitious growth targets in either the state-centered vision or citizen-centered vision is unlikely without transformative changes, even with optimistic policy implementation.
  • Integrating more women into the workforce stands out as a key driver of potential economic transformation for the region.
  • Achieving the region's visions of the future will require multifaceted approaches that spur economic progress and necessitate overcoming obstacles that are resistant to change.

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Lucas, Caleb, Daniel Egel, and Jeffrey Martini, Visions to Reality: Achieving the Middle East and North Africa's Economic Ambitions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4278-1.html.
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The research described in this report was funded by the Broad Reach Foundation and conducted in the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy.

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