This report summarizes the results of four runs of the Robot Insurgency scenario, an exercise conducted to understand how the United States should respond to and prepare for potential artificial intelligence (AI) developments. The scenario simulated a global rogue AI cyberattack. Results identify key issues, playbooks, and capabilities and provide an initial view into potential issues and options that policymakers may confront in a similar event.

Infinite Potential—Insights from the Robot Insurgency Scenario

After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises

Gregory Smith, Benjamin Boudreaux, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Joel B. Predd

ResearchPublished Oct 22, 2025

This report summarizes the results of four runs of the Robot Insurgency scenario, an exercise conducted to understand how the United States should respond to and prepare for potential artificial intelligence (AI) and artificial general intelligence (AGI) developments. 

As part of the RAND Geopolitics of AGI Initiative’s series of Day After AGI exercises using the RAND Infinite Potential platform, this scenario involved convening a simulated National Security Council Principals Committee to recommend a U.S. government response to a global cyberattack by rogue AI agents. Participants were asked to diagnose the implications of the scenario for U.S. national security, discuss courses of action, and recommend a path ahead for the President of the United States. Results were compiled to identify common issues, playbooks, and capabilities that participants discussed during the exercise.

This report provides an initial view into potential issues and options that policymakers may confront in a similar event.

Key Findings

Proper attribution of the attack emerged as a key analytical need to shape international responses

  • Participants favored very different and mutually incompatible responses depending on whether they believed the attack to have come from the People’s Republic of China, terrorists, a rogue AI agent, or some other source.
  • Participants therefore emphasized the importance of being able to rapidly attribute the attack to a particular actor so that they could choose the right response option.

Participants identified key capabilities to enable U.S. responses to a rogue AI agent

  • Many participants commented that current capabilities would be insufficient to respond to the type of cyberattack described in the scenario and that, if the cyberattack was in fact caused by a rogue AI agent, it might be nearly impossible to respond effectively because of the extent of the proliferation across cybersystems that the scenario presented.
  • Participants therefore emphasized the development of capabilities and resilience ahead of the crisis as crucial for successful response.
  • Three key capabilities emerged as priorities for participants: rapid AI and cyberanalysis capabilities, critical infrastructure resilience enhancement, and a detailed response plan before the crisis hit.

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Smith, Gregory, Benjamin Boudreaux, Michael J. D. Vermeer, and Joel B. Predd, Infinite Potential—Insights from the Robot Insurgency Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4231-1.html.
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