China's Water Future

Water stress is not a unique or new challenge to China, but the scale at which China must manage finite water resources to maintain economic and social stability creates trade-offs and challenges with potentially broader implications. Water supplies are limited in the northern region of China compared with supplies in the southern region. China has invested in large-scale infrastructure projects that move water between regions. However, China has initiated a wave of governmental changes in the past decade that have shifted policy focus to reduce demand, therefore increasing water conservation and efficiency while supporting economic growth and national security aims.

Water supply infrastructure projects likely cannot rectify the regional water disparities, particularly as the effects from climate change worsen and China continues investing in water-intensive industries. Water is tied to many of China’s policy initiatives and economic investments, and at some point the total sum of water demand may be significantly more than supply, particularly in northern China. There are disconnects in China’s water policy that will exacerbate water stress in the future and require China to make hard decisions about water, food, and economic security.

The authors of this report analyzed China’s water stress and recent water resource policy decisions to identify the current and future implications of water resource constraints for China’s strategic planning. The authors also conducted a workshop with China experts to identify the interaction of water resource constraints with other societal trends, such as economic, geopolitical, and environmental trends.