The Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel, and Services (AF/A1) asked RAND to help strengthen the workforce analytics enterprise’s contributions to Air Force decisionmaking processes by elevating AF/A1’s voice and the Air Force Manpower Analysis Agency’s role, centralizing decision rights at Headquarters Air Force, analyzing risk, and improving resource efficiency. The team developed actionable initiatives to address these features.

A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence

Patrick White, Kimberly Curry Hall, Nelson Lim, James Fan, Matthew Jobe, Caroline Margaret Johnston, Sarah Nicole Kosic, Baileigh McFall, Garret Moore, Robert Ulrich Nagel, et al.

ResearchPublished Mar 31, 2026

Cover: A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence
Download PDF
Additional Downloads

Includes Research Summary

The Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel, and Services (AF/A1) plans to establish a center of excellence to strengthen contributions to U.S. Air Force workforce decisions. However, several capability gaps currently limit this transformation. AF/A1 established a Council of Colonels (CoC) in January 2025 to develop courses of action to establish an Air Force workforce analytics center of excellence. The CoC found capability gaps in the current field operating agency (FOA)—Air Force Manpower Analysis Agency (AFMAA)—that need to be addressed: limited voice and influence in decision processes, organizational misalignment, insufficient analytical capacity, and data and technology limitations.

The AF/A1 asked RAND to support efforts to better address the gaps and strengthen contributions to enterprise decisionmaking. The RAND team synthesized the CoC working group’s deliberations into five features needed to close AFMAA’s capability gaps and support a center of excellence: (1) elevate AF/A1’s voice, (2) elevate the FOA’s role, (3) centralize decision rights at Headquarters Air Force (HAF), (4) conduct risk analysis, and (5) improve resource efficiency. Then, the team developed five actionable initiatives to address these features: a workforce decision governance structure and framework, a workforce risk assessment framework, a FOA workforce talent plan, a data integration framework, and a manpower requirement determination software application.

Key Findings

  • The FOA should administer a governance program to facilitate HAF workforce decisions. This program would centralize consequential workforce decisions and would be chaired by AF/A1, the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations (AF/A3), and the Air Education and Training Command Commander to ensure the incorporation of operational and airman development perspectives into enterprise-level decisions.
  • The FOA should develop and apply a workforce risk framework and integrate it into the governance program. This framework would help identify, assess, and mitigate risk to mission and risk to force.
  • The new FOA will require different roles, skills, and areas of focus from those of the current AFMAA organization. The workforce plan defines the skills and knowledge necessary for the FOA’s mission and outlines strategies to recruit and develop personnel, broaden skill sets across the agency, and repurpose positions that no longer align with the FOA’s mission.
  • The authors compiled a sample of data sources necessary for comprehensive workforce analysis and developed a framework to guide the FOA’s data-integration efforts. Strengthening data access and integration will improve decision quality and analytic efficiency.
  • AFMAA’s current process for determining manpower requirements is labor- and time-intensive. To illustrate a more efficient approach, the authors developed a proof-of-concept software prototype that automates parts of this process. This tool demonstrates how technology could streamline requirements analysis and improve timeliness and consistency.

Recommendations

  • Implement the Workforce Evaluation and Review Council (WERC) to serve as the primary process and forum for workforce governance and decisions.
  • Task the FOA with conducting and sustaining the WERC process and provide analytic support and continuity.
  • Designate a chief risk officer within the FOA to lead integrated risk analysis across AF/A1.
  • Prioritize the FOA’s role in conducting and integrating workforce risk analysis to better understand both mission-related and force-related risks.
  • Introduce risk analysis findings through WERC deliberations to ensure risk assessment informs consequential workforce decisions.
  • Accelerate implementation of workforce adjustments to align personnel with requirements needed to operate a workforce center of excellence.
  • Strengthen the FOA’s workforce mix by integrating new analytic, technical, and management skills.
  • Continue workforce adjustments beyond initial actions to sustain long-term organizational adaptability.
  • Encourage top-down data-sharing directives from senior leadership to ensure broad access across organizations.
  • Authorize select FOA analysts to access AF/A1 data systems without restriction to support comprehensive analysis.
  • Direct the FOA to lead and manage data fusion activities to support cross-cutting workforce analytics and senior leader decision support.
  • Further develop and scale the software application’s capabilities to support broader application by the FOA and U.S. Air Force functional communities.
  • Integrate the software application’s capabilities with governance, risk, talent, and data initiatives to ensure modernization efforts reinforce one another.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

White, Patrick, Kimberly Curry Hall, Nelson Lim, James Fan, Matthew Jobe, Caroline Margaret Johnston, Sarah Nicole Kosic, Baileigh McFall, Garret Moore, Robert Ulrich Nagel, Jennifer Nevius, Robert Romer, K. MacKenzie Scott, Matt Strawn, Tara L. Terry, and Stephanie Williamson, A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4043-2.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

This research was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel, and Services and conducted within the Workforce, Development, and Health Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.