This report offers analysis, tools, and recommendations to strengthen trilateral cooperation and collaboration among South Korea, Japan, and the United States on critical minerals supply chains (CMSCs) and economic security. The authors analyze the trio's vulnerabilities, policy objectives, and instruments; provide case studies on trilateral engagement with India and Mongolia; and identify opportunities for and barriers to trilateral cooperation.

Securing South Korea's Critical Minerals Supply Chains Through Trilateral Cooperation

Analysis and Tools for Supply Chain Net Assessment, Supply Chain Cooperation, and Economic Security

Fabian Villalobos, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Anujin Nergui, Elisa Yoshiara, Jinyoung Lee, Mina Pollmann, Harriet Goers, Bruce W. Bennett

ResearchPublished Aug 4, 2025

South Korea, Japan, and the United States' trilateral partnership has expanded to include collaboration on economic security, including on critical minerals supply chains (CMSCs). This report offers analysis, tools, and recommendations to strengthen South Korea's CMSCs and economic security through trilateral cooperation and collaboration among South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

Included in the report are (1) analysis of the trio's CMSC vulnerabilities and four industry case studies on cobalt, gallium, molybdenum, and tungsten; (2) summaries of the key organizations and governance leading critical minerals efforts, national legislation, policy tactics and tasks, and available financial mechanisms in each country, along with a supply chain net assessment tool and analysis to evaluate supply chain securitization efforts; (3) case studies on trilateral engagement with India and Mongolia and political alignment metrics to evaluate potential partnerships with mineral-rich countries; and (4) opportunities for and barriers to trilateral cooperation.

Although barriers exist, opportunities to secure South Korea's supply chains through trilateral cooperation include trade policy and sectoral trade agreements, steering the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) into new directions, and joint stockpiling initiatives, such as mineral swap agreements. South Korea can improve its supply chain vulnerabilities by expanding its concepts of economic security to include securing raw material inputs for its defense industrial base.

This report should be of interest to South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. policymakers; to researchers of Indo-Pacific and East Asian security, economic security, techno-economic competition, supply chain resilience, and related policy; and to the private sector.

Key Findings

  • The trio can learn from — and leverage — each other's differing approaches to supply chain security, especially South Korea's legislation, the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, and the U.S. National Defense Industrial Strategy. They trio will eventually need to work with partners outside the trio to enhance CMSC resilience — these partners could include India and Mongolia.
  • Opportunities for cooperation include pursuing cooperation on trade (e.g., sectoral trade agreements) and reducing barriers to the movement of skilled professionals; reducing barriers to sharing economic security information (e.g., by expanding intelligence sharing agreements to include supply chain data or through the identification or creation of new trade codes); improving joint crisis management systems (e.g., through joint stockpiling initiatives and mineral swap agreements); pooling resources to target foreign mining, processing, refining, and infrastructure projects (e.g., by leveraging each other's development investment banks and export credit agencies or through joint ventures and public-private partnerships); providing technical assistance and expertise on institution-building in developing nations to improve the business and investment environment; and increasing access to foreign markets and protecting the assets of domestic firms to protect them from economic coercion or disruption.
  • Barriers to cooperation include U.S. trade policy; foreign investment reviews in the United States; historical divides between South Korea and Japan; competition between South Korean and Japanese firms; private-sector aversion to investment in regions with uncertain regulatory regimes; lack of emphasis on defense industrial base supply chain security; and uncertain commitment to trilateral cooperation, including of South Korea's new leadership.

Recommendations

  • There are numerous opportunities for cooperation on CMSCs and economic security. South Korea should designate specific government organizations to pursue these opportunities at the appropriate level with Japan and the United States (e.g., pursuing cooperation on trade and industry standards, especially through sectoral agreements toward the creation of a critical minerals buyer's club through such institutions as the MSP, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, or minilateral trade blocks).
  • Pursuing opportunities may mitigate highlighted barriers. South Korea should prioritize the communication of low-regret, near-term opportunities with leadership in Japan and the United States (e.g., new trade codes for greater transparency and risk assessment). Bilateral engagement within the trio can also set the stage to bring in a third party in the future.
  • As chair of the MSP, South Korea should investigate alternative or expanded priorities for the partnership beyond project development and industry standards; trade policy is one such area.
  • South Korea should expand its concept of economic security to include support for the defense industrial base.
  • South Korean agencies should brief the incoming head of state on the importance of trilateral cooperation for economic security, supply chain securitization, and foreign dependencies to include critical minerals dependencies.

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Villalobos, Fabian, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Anujin Nergui, Elisa Yoshiara, Jinyoung Lee, Mina Pollmann, Harriet Goers, and Bruce W. Bennett, Securing South Korea's Critical Minerals Supply Chains Through Trilateral Cooperation: Analysis and Tools for Supply Chain Net Assessment, Supply Chain Cooperation, and Economic Security. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4000-1.html.
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This research was sponsored by the Korea Foundation and conducted by the Center for Applied Network Analysis within RAND Global and Emerging Risks.

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