After relocating internationally, some researchers thrive in their new environments, producing discoveries at rates higher than before their move. The authors of this report aim to identify predictors of successful outcomes after an international move.

Finding International Rockstar Researchers

Identifying Predictors of Success Following an International Move

Jon Schmid, Prateek Puri, Tobias Sytsma, John Vahedi, Nathaniel Edenfield, Amy M. Nice

ResearchPublished Jun 24, 2025

After relocating internationally, some researchers thrive in their new environments, producing discoveries at rates higher than before their move. The authors of this report aim to identify predictors of successful outcomes after an international move.

These predictors should be valuable to researchers in the fields of the science of science and migration, as well as to policymakers. For researchers in the fields of the science of science and migration, the report provides insights into an unexplored aspect of international research mobility: the factors correlated with researcher success following a move abroad. For policymakers, the report’s findings, when adapted to the specific policy application, can assist in adjudicating certain visa categories.

Key Findings

Artificial intelligence can help predict scientific career success after migration

  • A machine learning model improves accuracy by 15 percent compared with a baseline model.
  • The machine learning model’s performance was robust across three post-move outcome measures: publication counts, citation impact score, and the extent of academic integration into the new country.

Top scientists tend to keep succeeding after migration

  • Regression model correlations reveal that researchers who have a strong track record, routinely operate within large teams, are mature in their career, and have prior international collaboration experience are more likely to thrive after relocating.

Career history offers powerful clues about future success

  • Simple, measurable factors—such as a researcher’s past impact and collaborations—can significantly improve predictions of their post-move achievements.

Smarter immigration policies can boost scientific progress

  • Insights derived from individuals’ pre-move professional activity could help countries attract and retain top scientific talent, ensuring that they are poised to make meaningful scientific contributions in their new host country.

Different countries attract researchers at various career stages

  • For instance, the United States had a net inflow of early-career researchers (those with less than seven years since their first publication) but a net outflow of later-career researchers. China experienced the opposite.

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Schmid, Jon, Prateek Puri, Tobias Sytsma, John Vahedi, Nathaniel Edenfield, and Amy M. Nice, Finding International Rockstar Researchers: Identifying Predictors of Success Following an International Move. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3998-1.html.
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This work was conducted by the Technology and Security Policy Center within RAND Global and Emerging Risks.

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