Community colleges play a key role in developing talent and increasing economic mobility in the United States. However, community college enrollment has been declining. The authors examine the loss of students who leave their community college before the census date. Specifically, they investigate the critical periods spanning application, enrollment, and census date; different leakage points; and possible strategies to retain these students.

Lost but Not Forgotten?

Community College Efforts to Track and Reengage Students Lost Before the Census Date

Rita T. Karam, Charles A. Goldman, David Mahan, Sayeeda Jamilah, Dillon Lu

ResearchPublished Jul 16, 2025

Community colleges play a key role in developing talent and increasing economic mobility in the United States. However, community college enrollment has been declining over the past decade. Much of the research on enrollment, persistence, transfers, and degree completion in community colleges focuses exclusively on students officially enrolled as of the census date—the point at which community colleges count students as enrolled for each term. Far less is known about the extent to which students drop out before the census date or their reasons for disengaging. To boost community college enrollment, these institutions could prioritize addressing the barriers faced by students who disengage during the period prior to the census date.

In this report, the authors examine the loss of students who leave their community college before the census date. The study was implemented in Kentucky, Texas, and California. Specifically, the authors investigate the critical periods spanning application, enrollment, and census date; different leakage points; and possible strategies to retain these students. The authors address the magnitude of student loss before the census date, the approaches that colleges use to track these students, how students’ interactions are structured with colleges prior to the census date, and the key personal and institutional challenges that contribute to student loss. Additionally, the authors examine colleges’ outreach efforts to reengage this group of students, whether these efforts are perceived as effective, and the federal and state policies or incentives targeting this student population.

Key Findings

  • Community colleges lose 10 to 15 percent of their newly enrolled students before the census date. This figure increases to over 60 percent when accounting for the attrition rate from the application stage to enrollment.
  • All colleges possess the data necessary to monitor student attrition from application and enrollment periods to the census date. However, not all institutions effectively use these data to track these students.
  • Delayed financial aid communication often leaves students with incomplete applications or unclear decisions at the enrollment stage, exacerbating financial challenges and hindering students’ ability to stay enrolled beyond the census date.
  • Fragmented application and enrollment processes often confuse students, causing them to miss support opportunities and drop out early.
  • During the application and enrollment phase, services vary in quality, and adviser interactions are often transactional. Without collecting formal information on students’ nonacademic needs, advisers struggle to address these needs, build rapport, and connect students to resources.
  • Some colleges encourage staff to use early alert systems before the census date to identify at-risk students. They also employ alternatives, such as redesigning online courses with mandatory attendance verification, instead of relying on faculty to track physical attendance.
  • States do not mandate that colleges track pre-census populations, but in some states, such as Kentucky, the centralized system facilitates comprehensive student tracking from application through enrollment.
  • Although federal policies emphasize post-census enrollment for financial aid eligibility, state policies in California and Texas incentivize colleges to retain students for credential completion. These policies may indirectly encourage pre-census retention efforts.

Recommendations

  • Colleges should consolidate information technology systems to streamline student data access and adopt clear definitions of all handoff stages between students’ first application and their official enrollment, as well as metrics to track students.
  • Colleges should rethink welcome emails and key emails by simplifying and personalizing communication and consider implementing text-messaging systems to provide customized information and links to resources.
  • Colleges should consider adopting a team-based case management approach in which each student is assigned to a specific team.
  • Colleges should improve financial aid completion with timely prompts and address barriers for undeclared students who are ineligible for aid by redefining “undecided” options, extending major selection timelines, offering orientations, engaging staff in significant discussions, and partnering with high schools to support career exploration.
  • Colleges should prioritize ongoing professional development to develop staff capacity to build strong relationships with them and develop a monitoring system to evaluate efforts to reduce student attrition.
  • States should consider adopting Kentucky’s approach to coordinating access to basic need support and expanding eligibility to improve student access to these services and potentially increase college retention rates.
  • States should consider connecting data sources that enable system and college leaders to track students from application through enrollment, retention, graduation, and the labor market.
  • States can help colleges with technical assistance for data systems and resources to personalize outreach to students who are at risk of dropping out.

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Karam, Rita T., Charles A. Goldman, David Mahan, Sayeeda Jamilah, and Dillon Lu, Lost but Not Forgotten? Community College Efforts to Track and Reengage Students Lost Before the Census Date. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3840-1.html.
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