The report outlines some futures methods that could add value to Ukrainian decision-making processes by offering a systematic way of thinking about and exploring possible futures. These methods can help individuals and organisations anticipate future developments by helping them understand potential changes, uncertainties and emerging trends.

Scoping the future

Improving Ukraine's awareness of future technologies

Zsofia Wolford, Stella Harrison, Thomas Kenchington, Elizabeth Moisan, Tristan Kreetz

ResearchPublished Nov 17, 2025

This report forms part of RAND Europe's Support to Ukraine Priority Research (SUPER), and it outlines some futures methods that could add value to Ukrainian decision-making processes. These futures methods offer a systematic way of thinking about and exploring possible futures, and they can help individuals and organisations anticipate future developments by helping them understand potential changes, uncertainties and emerging trends. Such foresight can support strategy, policy and doctrine development, as well as identification of requirements or focus areas for technology investments. This report also presents a horizon scanning tool, it discusses approaches for sense-making and decision-making under uncertainty, and it covers probabilistic approaches to futures analysis.

Key Findings

Futures methods are a set of structured approaches designed to help users systematically explore and prepare for a range of possible futures. This way, futures methods support the creation of more resilient and adaptable strategies, plans or investments that can withstand changing conditions and reduce the risk of unintended consequences. When considering futures methods, there are several important elements to take into account:

  • Futures methods can help Ukraine look beyond the immediate future and explore priority areas for defence capability and investment options in the medium term. Short-term decisions about defence capabilities often flow directly from battlefield developments and the immediate needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In the medium- and long-term timeframes, there is more uncertainty about which technologies may be most needed. By applying futures methods, Ukrainian decision-makers can help manage this uncertainty and set priorities for S&T and capability development.
  • The goal of futures methods is not to predict the future, but to prepare for a range of potential futures. Futures methods can help with developing strategies that remain effective across a spectrum of potential developments, and reduce the element of disruption and surprise that Russia might get from, for example, deploying a new capability on the battlefield.
  • Futures methods can help assess and quantify the likelihood of certain events happening. This can provide insight into the resources and the type of contingency that should be allocated to a specific potential outcome, which helps enhance preparedness and early adaptation, avoiding strategic shock or surprise.
  • Futures methods can help make implicit assumptions explicit, allowing policymakers to scrutinise and validate them before they shape critical decisions. Ukrainian decisionmakers are forced to make life-or-death decisions under the stress of the ongoing war effort. The use of futures methods can help structure decision-making and reduce the risk of groupthink and other cognitive biases, bringing together perspectives from across the Ukrainian defence ecosystem.

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Wolford, Zsofia, Stella Harrison, Thomas Kenchington, Elizabeth Moisan, and Tristan Kreetz, Scoping the future: Improving Ukraine's awareness of future technologies. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3833-3.html.
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