This report, part of RAND's Support to Ukraine's Priority Research (SUPER) project, examines how Ukraine's defence technology policy evolves under full-scale war. Through SWOT analysis and expert assessment, it identifies gaps in R&D, procurement and institutional coordination, recommending reforms to improve defence innovation, long-term capability development and resilience of Ukraine's defence industrial base in partnership with allies.

From policy to victory

Recommendations to Ukraine for harnessing defence technology

Pauline Paillé, Mattias Eken, Thomas Kenchington, Beatrice Aubert

ResearchPublished Nov 24, 2025

Defence technology policy and its implementation through the acquisition and production of military capabilities is among the most uncertain, complex and costly areas for government investment. The adaptability and innovative nature of Ukraine's defence technology policy have helped to offset Russia's quantitative advantages since the 2022 invasion. As part of RAND's Support to Ukraine's Priority Research (SUPER) project for the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation (MDT), this report examines Ukraine's approach to defence technology policy, analysing its strengths and weaknesses.

Ukraine faces a unique challenge in its need to enact relevant and bespoke defence technology policies to acquire new capabilities while fighting an existential war. It must balance its immediate tactical demand for resources with the formulation and funding of longer-term strategic policies and investments. This dual focus is essential not only to meet tactical resource requirements on the battlefield but also to ensure that advanced technologies and capabilities can be leveraged to sustain Ukraine's future defence requirements.

Despite the absence of a single policy document outlining a centralised approach to defence technology policy, Ukraine's initiatives and frameworks have flourished since 2022. To identify areas for improvement within this landscape, RAND conducted a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis. Key improvement areas include ensuring clearly defined roles and responsibilities across the defence technology landscape, setting research and development (R&D) priorities and creating longer-term contracting mechanisms.

Key Findings

Agile adaptation in wartime

  • Ukraine's defence ecosystem has demonstrated adaptive capacity under the pressures of full-scale war. Its strengths include a decentralised, bottom-up model of innovation allowing rapid testing and integration of solutions directly informed by battlefield testing. However, the absence of a coordinated approach to identify and prioritise promising technologies for investment, as well as challenges associated with the implementation of past reforms, hinder ongoing efforts towards the development of sustainable defence innovation ecosystem.

Structural challenges to long-term security

  • The Ukrainian defence industry faces persistent systemic challenges, including production capacity, funding diversification, and regulatory adaptation which lag technological progress. Furthermore, a short-term orientation toward tactical gains and contracting mechanisms limits the strategic development of Ukraine's defence industrial base.

Institutionalising achievements under fire

  • Significant opportunities exist to embed lessons learned into lasting institutional frameworks. Improved regulation, expanded funding models, and strengthened ties with EU and NATO partners could enhance oversight and foster resilient collaboration. Further leveraging operational experience to develop technologies applicable beyond immediate battlefield needs would reinforce Ukraine's role as a credible defence innovator. However, threats related to financial uncertainty, governance clarity, and human capital shortages must be managed to secure the defence innovation ecosystem's long-term viability.

Recommendations

  • Establish clear definitions of roles and responsibilities across Ukraine's key government bodies involved in defence technology and innovation enabling effective interministerial cooperation, oversight, and accountability.
  • Define clear R&D priorities by identifying promising technology areas beyond immediate battlefield needs, supported by regular use of methodological tools — such as horizon scanning and analysis centres — to guide investment decisions and strengthen Ukraine's defence innovation base.
  • Advance reforms to establish longer-term, more agile contracting and procurement mechanisms — such as multi‑year framework agreements with clear oversight protocols — to enhance transparency and contractor accountability in Ukraine's defence sector.

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Paillé, Pauline, Mattias Eken, Thomas Kenchington, and Beatrice Aubert, From policy to victory: Recommendations to Ukraine for harnessing defence technology. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3833-2.html.
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