Strategies to Improve Detection of Novel Pandemic Pathogens

Cost Versus Detection Performance for Promising Pathogen-Agnostic Detection Workflows

Alex Demarsh, Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Cassidy Nelson, Javier Rojas Aguilera, Nathan Duarte, Sella Nevo, Henry H. Willis

ResearchPublished Dec 1, 2025

This RAND analysis compares three pathogen‑agnostic biosurveillance strategies—syndromic, wearable, and environmental—using modeling to assess cost versus detection performance. Environmental sampling detected outbreaks fastest, followed by wearable sensors, although both lost advantage with highly transmissible or symptomatic diseases. Limited pilot deployments could refine real-world costs and validate early-warning performance.

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Demarsh, Alex, Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Cassidy Nelson, Javier Rojas Aguilera, Nathan Duarte, Sella Nevo, and Henry H. Willis, Strategies to Improve Detection of Novel Pandemic Pathogens: Cost Versus Detection Performance for Promising Pathogen-Agnostic Detection Workflows. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3704-1.html.
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