Rapid developments in life science technologies could have major consequences for the field of biosecurity. In this report, the authors propose and demonstrate a method to measure changes in threats associated with these emerging technologies. The method relies on expert elicitation and technology scoring techniques to understand how biotechnology maturation and diffusion could lower barriers for nonstate actors to create biological agents.

Assessing the Impacts of Technology Maturity and Diffusion on Malicious Biological Agent Development Capabilities

Demonstrating a Transparent, Repeatable Assessment Method

Barbara Del Castello, Henry H. Willis

ResearchPublished Aug 11, 2025

In this report, the authors propose and demonstrate a method to measure changes in threats associated with emerging technologies in the life sciences. The method focuses on how biotechnology maturation and diffusion could lower barriers for nonstate actors to create biological agents. By evaluating the current and near-term maturity of eight disruptive technologies through expert elicitation, the authors demonstrate how to use their method to assess the impact of emerging technologies on the biological agent creation pipeline. The method can be used and extended by those seeking to understand and manage emerging biosecurity risks generated through the advancement of biotechnologies and artificial intelligence.

This report should be of interest to biosecurity researchers and policymakers interested in evaluating how advances in life science technologies contribute to increasing adversary bioattack capabilities.

Key Findings

  • The proposed method can improve analysts’ understanding of the potential for increased biosecurity risks as life science technologies mature while pinpointing which technologies might be of greatest concern.
  • To better assess the impact on biosecurity, ongoing research can apply this method to incorporate elicitations from a broader variety of experts.

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Del Castello, Barbara and Henry H. Willis, Assessing the Impacts of Technology Maturity and Diffusion on Malicious Biological Agent Development Capabilities: Demonstrating a Transparent, Repeatable Assessment Method. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3662-1.html.
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