Deploying private military actors allows Russia to expand its military footprint while maintaining plausible deniability of direct involvement in military operations. An adaptation of the RAND-developed military will-to-fight model highlights opportunities to counter these actors and target potential vulnerabilities through cognitive maneuver at the individual, team, organizational, state, and societal levels.

Will to Fight of Private Military Actors

Applying Cognitive Maneuver to Russian Private Forces

Molly Dunigan, Anthony Atler

ResearchPublished Jul 31, 2023

In Syria, Ukraine, several African countries, and other conflict hotspots around the globe, private contractors are operating on behalf of, yet are ostensibly separate from, the Russian state. Reliance on these actors allows Russia to expand its military footprint while maintaining plausible deniability of direct involvement in major combat operations and competition short of armed conflict. The United States and its allies may be able to counter these actors and diminish their will to fight through cognitive maneuver, a concept that emphasizes changing minds and behaviors as a path to victory.

An adaptation of the RAND-developed military will-to-fight model highlights opportunities to counter Russia's use of private military actors using cognitive maneuver. Accompanying multimethod qualitative analyses found potential vulnerabilities at the individual, team, organizational, state, and societal levels that could be targeted to diminish the motivation to fight among individual contractor personnel, the relationships between Russian private military companies and the Russian government and armed forces, and public opinion on the use of contractors and their treatment.

Key Findings

The Russian private military industry is opaque, making it difficult to identify relevant actors

  • Russian private military actors have been operating worldwide for decades, but little is known about them or the personnel they employ.
  • Despite close connections between private military actors and the Russian state, the private military industry is illegal in Russia and thus operates mostly under the radar.

Factors at several levels highlight opportunities to use cognitive maneuver to counter private military actors' will to fight

  • At the individual level, Russian private military personnel tend to be motivated by economic factors rather than a sense of patriotism or loyalty to the Russian state.
  • At the team level, military and private forces might have negative views of one another that could be exacerbated.
  • At the organizational level, Russian private military actors exert tight control over their personnel, including through coercion, and there are disparities in pay and treatment that could dissuade recruits.
  • At the state level in Russia, the industry's illegal status indicates a lack of state support, which could discourage recruitment and inhibit retention of private military personnel.
  • At the societal level, the Russian public has little awareness of how private military personnel are employed or how poorly they are treated.

Russian private military actors fulfill roles reminiscent of auxiliary forces

  • Russian private military actors serve to expand Russia's military footprint while their illegal status allows Russia to maintain plausible deniability of involvement in military operations.

Recommendations

  • Exploit vulnerabilities in recruitment and retention of contractor personnel and in their loyalty and commitment to Russian private military companies and the Russian state.
  • Broadcast warnings to potential recruits about the coercive nature of contracts, disparities in pay and living conditions between contractor ranks, as well as the mental and physical health risks of private military contractor employment and difficulty accessing treatment.
  • Identify and exploit opportunities to sow disorder or exacerbate tensions between Russian private military actors and Russian military forces.
  • Create societal backlash against Russia's use of private military personnel by publicly disseminating information about their veteran status and poor treatment, as well as data on casualties.

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Dunigan, Molly and Anthony Atler, Will to Fight of Private Military Actors: Applying Cognitive Maneuver to Russian Private Forces. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA355-1.html.
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This research sponsored by U.S. Army Special Operations Command and conducted by the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program within the RAND Arroyo Center.

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