Allies and partners in Europe and East Asia are experiencing systemic problems in developing military personnel as a result of demographic decline, social factors, and economic conditions. This personnel shortage will have direct, indirect, and strategic effects on U.S. interests abroad. In response to these challenges, RAND researchers discuss eight options for systemic reform.

Suppose They Held a War and Nobody Came

Systemic Approaches to Shared Military Personnel Challenges

Paul Cormarie, Stephen Dalzell, Naoko Aoki, Omar Danaf, Jan K. Gleiman

ResearchPublished Oct 9, 2025

Allies and partners of the United States in Europe and East Asia are experiencing systemic problems in developing military personnel as a result of demographic decline, social factors, and economic conditions. This personnel shortage has direct, indirect, and strategic effects for collective defense and U.S. security abroad. In response to these challenges, RAND researchers discuss eight options for allied and partner reform efforts. These are not broad recommendations to be applied to all; instead, individual countries should explore how and whether to apply each option to their specific personnel crises.

Key Findings

  • Militaries in Europe and East Asia are experiencing a growing demand for personnel to support national and multinational plans to expand forces.
  • The personnel challenges that foreign militaries face can lead to a hollower and less capable force, which can then result in lower readiness, reduced flexibility, and a more expensive force that relies more on others for collective defense or combined defensive operations.
  • Government responses to these shortages in both Europe and East Asia tend to be similar and unsuccessful in shifting personnel trends.
  • More radical reforms and broader research efforts might be necessary to mitigate the challenges that foreign militaries face and to further reduce strategic risk.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Cormarie, Paul, Stephen Dalzell, Naoko Aoki, Omar Danaf, and Jan K. Gleiman, Suppose They Held a War and Nobody Came: Systemic Approaches to Shared Military Personnel Challenges. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3307-1.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

This project was internally funded through RAND’s program supporting innovative research outside their usual sponsors. The research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.