The Russia-Ukraine war has led European nations to reconsider what is required to ensure their collective defense. To assess whether the war may drive long term changes in regional security priorities, investments, and relations, RAND researchers analyzed changes in European attitudes toward Russia; collective security strategies, institutions, and resources; and prospects for increased integration with Ukraine.

Will Europe Rebuild or Divide?

The Strategic Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for Europe’s Future

Alexandra T. Evans, Krystyna Marcinek, Omar Danaf

ResearchPublished May 22, 2025

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The Russia-Ukraine war has compelled European leaders to ask fundamental questions about European security and defense, confront the realities of modern interstate conflict, and reassess the tools available to manage the current emergency and defend against future threats. Since the war began, European nations working collectively through the European Union (EU), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and sub-regional coalitions have come together in opposition to Russia’s invasion and in defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty. It remains to be seen, however, whether the war will drive broader changes in European understandings of the threat to their collective interests and what is required to ensure their collective defense. 

RAND researchers examined the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war and how U.S. allies in Europe understand and pursue their security. To assess whether the conflict is likely to drive long-lasting changes in European security priorities, investments, and relations, the researchers analyzed the conflict’s effects on (1) European attitudes toward relations with Russia; (2) European collective security strategies, institutions, and resources; and (3) prospects for increased integration with Ukraine. 

Key Findings

  • The European shift away from engagement with Russia is likely irreversible absent a significant change in Russian leadership, domestic politics, or external behavior.
  • The war has energized Europeans to improve their operational flexibility, but any movement toward strategic autonomy from the United States is likely to be limited.
  • Although the EU has sought a greater defense role, the substantial reforms that would enable Brussels to direct collective military action are unlikely because of national differences and the immaturity of existing proposals.
  • European engagement with Ukraine is generally one-directional and falls short of standards for de facto defense integration.
  • Ukraine’s formal integration through the EU and NATO is unlikely in the near term.

Recommendations

  • The U.S. government should expand U.S. consultations and coordination with the EU on defense matters.
  • The U.S. government should encourage the creation of an EU fund to support member states’ implementation of NATO resilience initiatives.
  • The U.S. government should continue to encourage economic and industrial cooperation between U.S. allies in Europe and the Pacific through non-NATO frameworks.
  • The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) should increase and regularize dialogues with the European Defense Agency and other EU institutions to encourage the interchangeability of new systems, particularly munitions, developed through new European joint development and procurement programs.
  • DoD should identify and communicate where European producers may be best suited to address U.S. gaps.
  • DoD should work through NATO forums to identify high-return investments useful for a range of contingencies, including measures short of war.
  • DoD should continue to cooperate with the EU on regional and security issues beyond Russia.
  • The U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) and U.S. Air Forces in Europe should assess and communicate to European allies’ potential munitions, maintenance, and spare parts requirements that might differ from demand-signals created by the Ukraine war.
  • DAF should increase information sharing on U.S. Air Force operational requirements in other theaters, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

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Evans, Alexandra T., Krystyna Marcinek, and Omar Danaf, Will Europe Rebuild or Divide? The Strategic Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for Europe’s Future. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3141-5.html.
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This research was commissioned by the U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE)–Air Forces Africa (AFAFRICA) Plans and Programs Directorate (A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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