To further understanding of nuclear explosions’ potential risks to satellites, especially those in low earth orbit where most satellites reside, this report summarizes publicly available literature on the effects that high-altitude nuclear explosions in the space and near-space environments could have on nonmilitary satellites.

The Effects of High-Altitude Nuclear Explosions on Non-Military Satellites

Don Snyder, Angela Putney, Erin N. Leidy, Gavin S. Hartnett, James Bonomo

ResearchPublished Mar 3, 2025

The United States has become increasingly dependent on space for communications, remote sensing, weather, navigation, and science and technology development. If a nuclear weapon were to be detonated in space or near space, these capabilities would be placed at risk. This report summarizes public information on the effects that space and near-space nuclear detonations could have on non-military satellites.

The report provides two illustrative cases: a hypothetical nuclear detonation at 400 km altitude at low earth orbit and a detonation at 30 km altitude, an altitude suitable for generating electromagnetic pulse. The authors examined the effects from prompt radiation, delayed radiation effects, and effects on the atmosphere.

Key Findings

A 400-km detonation would jeopardize many satellites

  • A detonation of 110 kilotons or greater would jeopardize up to about 20 percent of the satellites in low earth orbit (LEO) from prompt radiation.
  • Detonations larger than 110 kilotons would expose the same number of satellites to greater radiation.
  • A detonation of considerable yield could jeopardize another large fraction of LEO satellites from delayed effects of trapped electrons for years.
  • Relaunching and quickly reconstituting a satellite constellation might not be feasible.
  • Exactly how many satellites would be jeopardized and for how long depends on where trapped electrons would be concentrated and how many.
  • The detonation could interfere with radio communications between the ground and satellites locally for hours.
  • A 400-km detonation or any detonation within LEO would significantly degrade space-based communications, remote sensing, and weather services.

A 30-km nuclear detonation could jeopardize systems on the ground by generating electromagnetic pulse

  • It is not expected to have significant, direct effects on satellites from prompt radiation.
  • Some LEO satellites could be exposed to trapped electron radiation for weeks or months, but this exposure would be less than in the 400-km case.
  • The detonation could interfere with radio communications between the ground and satellites locally for hours.

Satellites can be hardened to x-rays and electrons

  • The costs of adequately doing so to counter nuclear weapons are not commercially practical.
  • There is no practical shielding for satellites to neutrons and gamma rays.
  • Replenishment of electron-damaged satellites must wait until the electron density decays to safe levels.

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Document Details

Citation

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Snyder, Don, Angela Putney, Erin N. Leidy, Gavin S. Hartnett, and James Bonomo, The Effects of High-Altitude Nuclear Explosions on Non-Military Satellites. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3028-3.html.
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This research was sponsored by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and conducted in the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division.

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