This report presents an analysis of the factors that govern escalatory risk from U.S. policy options during periods of peace, crisis, or war. The analysis combines theoretical and historical research with a current assessment of Chinese and Russian views of escalation. The research provides the basis for building a framework that could be useful to the U.S. Army and policymakers to assess the possible effects of proposed policy actions.

Understanding Escalation

A Framework for Evaluating the Escalatory Risks of Policy Actions

Michael J. Mazarr, Dara Massicot, Anthony Atler, Jason H. Campbell, Nathan Chandler, Alexis Dale-Huang, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Raymond Kuo, Krista Langeland, Gwen Mazzotta, et al.

ResearchPublished May 27, 2025

Understanding the potential sources of escalatory risk is an increasingly important priority for U.S. policymakers. If rivalries produce a series of crises or even proxy or limited conflicts, the danger of those confrontations escalating to higher levels of violence will be an ever-present concern for U.S. decisionmakers.

To support current planning, U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command and U.S. Army Pacific requested that the RAND Arroyo Center investigate potential sources of escalatory risk from U.S. policy actions and build a tool to assess such risks. This report summarizes that work and concludes with the components of the framework.

The analysis combines theoretical and historical research with a current assessment of Chinese and Russian views of escalation and a recognition of the way emerging technologies are changing the context for escalatory dynamics.

Escalatory pressures can be highly unpredictable and derive from many independent factors. The tool developed in this research can help decisionmakers think more broadly about such risks. However, an actual crisis or wartime situation will involve a complex and nonlinear interaction of these and other factors, including mistakes and accidents, that can be very difficult to control.

Key Findings

  • Escalatory risk is a nonlinear, perceptual, and subjective issue that cannot be reduced to a single number.
  • It is nonetheless possible to identify specific aspects of policy actions that are associated with higher escalatory risks.
  • Fifteen such factors were identified that vary from the character of the action itself to the larger geopolitical context and to the strategic position of the two sides.
  • Several of those factors appear to be especially decisive in governing escalation. The resulting framework from this research highlights those factors and gives them added weight in the assessment of escalatory risk.
  • Identifiable packages of these factors—such as the existence of an urgent crisis atmosphere or the perception by one side that its existential security is at risk—can pose unique escalation dangers.

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Mazarr, Michael J., Dara Massicot, Anthony Atler, Jason H. Campbell, Nathan Chandler, Alexis Dale-Huang, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Raymond Kuo, Krista Langeland, Gwen Mazzotta, Erik E. Mueller, Karl P. Mueller, Mark Stalczynski, Daniel Tapia, and Nathan Thompson, Understanding Escalation: A Framework for Evaluating the Escalatory Risks of Policy Actions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2215-1.html.
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This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program.

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