A Comparative Analysis of Choices and Trade-Offs in U.S. Department of Defense and People’s Liberation Army Military Research, Development, and Acquisition Programs

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China has undergone a period of rapid modernization of its air, sea, land, space, and cyber forces, creating concern about the relative rate of U.S. modernization efforts. Prior research documents the seemingly slow response of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to modernize its forces. China’s investments in modernization have upset the conventional military balance, undermined the U.S. ability to deter China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific region, increased the cost and risks of war if deterrence fails, and complicated U.S. policymakers’ decision space by ensuring that any conventional war will be fought with the risk of nuclear escalation.

In this report, RAND researchers advance a theory, method, and experimental design for a comparative analysis of programmatic choices and trade-offs made within DoD and PLA research, development, and acquisition programs, focusing on the effects that those choices have had on the schedule on which capabilities are developed, produced, and fielded. The researchers hypothesize that DoD’s slow pace of modernization relative to the PLA’s pace is influenced heavily by DoD and PLA choices to set strategic priorities, align requirements to strategically relevant operational problems, align resources to those requirements, and make cost, schedule, and performance trade-offs that give more weight to scheduling. This method is part of a broader project to assist DoD in comparing strengths, weaknesses, and biases between the U.S. and Chinese militaries.