RAND researchers engaged external experts in an innovative and iterative participatory foresight approach to envision a U.S. economy in 2040 that supports United States domestic and security needs while benefiting its partners and engaging in strategic competition with potential adversaries. The workshop findings detail assumptions, alternative strategies, and potential pathways that may enable or impede such a future.

Build Thee More Stately Mansions

Participatory Foresight and the Mid-Century U.S. Economy

Steven W. Popper, Richard Silberglitt, Fabian Villalobos, Khrystyna Holynska, Krystyna Marcinek, Nadia Almasalkhi, Jack Lashendock

ResearchPublished Jun 23, 2025

What does a future U.S. economy look like that will meet domestic needs, sustain national security, and operate effectively in a global economy characterized by strategic economic competition? And what are the available policy pathways for achieving that vision? This report presents the principal findings of an exploratory analysis that applies participatory foresight to answer both questions.

In 2023, RAND researchers brought together a diverse group of experts and challenged them to envision the details of a desirable U.S. economy in 2040 and the conditions needed to realize that future. Over two workshops, the experts engaged in an economic and institutional analysis, specifying elements of a vision addressed to domestic, security, and strategic competitive needs. Workshop participants used an innovative and iterative approach to participatory foresight known as Vision, Strategic Concepts, Assumptions, Robust Pathways (VSCARP) that employs a suite of four foresight techniques.

Using VSCARP helped participants identify assumptions necessary to achieve their vision for the U.S. economy in 2040. It also allowed participants to develop and map policy pathways that may enable or impede such a future and identify important elements for crafting a robust strategy to achieve goals while confronting uncertainty. In doing so, they provide a template for similar structured multilateral or cross-agency deliberations grappling with wicked problems and deep uncertainty.

RAND researchers summarize the challenges and successes of undertaking such a participatory foresight process, and they discuss the many complex and interrelated policy pathways toward possible mid-century futures that the process uncovered.

This report is the second of a four-part series in which RAND researchers considered different aspects of U.S.-China economic competition. Part 1 presents economic and institutional analyses of U.S.-China economic competition. Parts 3 and 4 describe two economic competition games that explore the dynamics of multiple countries trying to ensure their own economic health.

Key Findings

A strategically competitive and beneficial U.S. economy in 2040 is possible — but only if certain conditions are met

  • Individuals and groups with different interests, perceptions, worldviews, and sets of assumptions can agree on a desirable mid-century U.S. economy.
  • Domestic policies and actions can enable movement toward, or provide barriers to, reaching desirable U.S. economic futures.
  • Beneficial futures hinge on the capacity for foreign and domestic U.S. investment, the need to expertly plan for and agree on such investment, and a managed relationship with China.
  • Strong relationships with allies and outreach to emerging economies could support movement toward desirable U.S economic futures.

VSCARP makes it possible to envision potential futures and the assumptions, strategies, and pathways that make those futures possible

  • VSCARP makes it possible to map complex relationships across time, policy domains, and categories of interest.
  • A systematic, structured process can enable groups of individuals with highly varied training and expertise to think dynamically across an evolving domestic and international landscape.
  • VSCARP helps researchers share alternative strategic concepts; examine them simultaneously for key assumptions, vulnerabilities, and performance outcomes; and identify strategies to promote success and hedge risks.
  • The VSCARP structure de-conflicts potential controversies over differing assumptions, clashing interests, and competing policy proposals. Consensus for action can be framed without requiring stakeholders to agree on a common perception of future trends and alternatives.
  • Participatory foresight can provide an important element within a larger framing to give the leading edge of a more detailed integration of policy deliberation and analytical decision support.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Popper, Steven W., Richard Silberglitt, Fabian Villalobos, Khrystyna Holynska, Krystyna Marcinek, Nadia Almasalkhi, and Jack Lashendock, Build Thee More Stately Mansions: Participatory Foresight and the Mid-Century U.S. Economy. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1947-2.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

This research was sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.