This report offers a preliminary conception of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism. The framework provides an indicative assessment of competing demands for high-priority counterterrorism means, especially considering the prioritization of the Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility in the emerging national defense strategy that seeks to deter war with great powers.

Terrorism Net Assessment

Terrence K. Kelly, David C. Gompert, Karen M. Sudkamp

ResearchPublished May 2, 2023

In this report, the authors offer a concept of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism. By assessing the threats and prioritizing the functions and means to counter them, it is possible to derive net terrorist threat assessments: in essence, the dangers given a determined set of U.S. counterterrorism capabilities. The authors provide a framework that offers an indicative assessment of competing demands for high-priority counterterrorism capabilities.

Key Findings

To perform a net assessment, the intent, capabilities, and access to targets of chosen terrorist threats must be analyzed

  • This analysis focuses on two broad classes of threats: (1) very capable, usually large, anti-American jihadist extremist groups (mainly in and around the Greater Middle East) and (2) widely, if not globally, distributed networks of radicalized small cells or individuals.
  • A complete net assessment should include an examination of other threats by intent, capabilities, and access and of the potential for distributed threats to become more dangerous.

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Kelly, Terrence K., David C. Gompert, and Karen M. Sudkamp, Terrorism Net Assessment. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1929-1.html.
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This research was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

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