This report, which draws largely on Israeli and third-party views, examines economic, diplomatic, and security ties between Israel and Turkey and the possible futures of these ties. Israeli-Turkish relations remain contentious; the main conflicts relate to Iranian influence in Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as demonstrated by the May 2018 diplomatic rift over the clashes in Gaza and the opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem.

The Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations

Shira Efron

ResearchPublished Jun 27, 2018

This report, which draws largely on Israeli and third-party views, examines the relations between Israel and Turkey, concentrating on the state of economic, diplomatic, and security ties after the 2016 reconciliation between the two countries and the possible futures of these ties. Israel and Turkey have almost seven decades of relations, but even after the reconciliation, ties remain strained. While the Israeli and Turkish business communities would like to resume former levels of engagement, and there is interest in cooperation over natural gas, relations in the diplomatic and security spheres are tense because of distrust of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and differences between the countries over the future of Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Any change, for better or worse, in Israeli-Palestinian relations, will have implications for the ties between Israel and Turkey, as demonstrated by the May 2018 diplomatic rift over the violent clashes in Gaza and the opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem.

Key Findings

Strong Bedrock, Formidable Challenges

  • Israel and Turkey still have strong common interests, especially economically. Natural gas development is still a prospect, and both countries share the objective of stability of Gaza.
  • However, Israeli opinion of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and differences between the countries over the future of Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian issue will probably keep relations cold.
  • Israel now has economic and security cooperation alternatives to Turkey, such as Cyprus and Greece. Israeli defense industries have found larger markets than Turkey for their exports including India, South Korea and Japan.
  • Changes in the status of the Israeli-Turkish relationship will probably occur alongside developments on the Israeli-Palestinian front, as demonstrated by the May 2018 diplomatic rift over the violent clashes in Gaza and the opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem.

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Efron, Shira, The Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2018. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2445.html.
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