Cities and Climate Change

Identifying, Measuring and Evaluating Public Policy for Heatwaves

Diogo Prosdocimi

ResearchPublished Sep 3, 2025

As global temperatures continue to rise because of climate change, urban areas and regions face escalating challenges from the heat island effect and the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme heat events, posing significant risks to human health and well-being. Although cities have historically demonstrated resilience to physical damage from disasters, they are not immune to change. The compounding effects of climate change present complex challenges that necessitate a nuanced understanding and effective policy responses. The author of this dissertation addresses gaps in the literature by examining methods for measuring vulnerability to extreme heat events and evaluating policies to enhance urban resilience. The author begins with a comprehensive literature review, discussing the definitions of heatwaves, climate and weather event risks, climate adaptations, resilience, and the health effects of extreme heat events. Three empirical papers follow, each contributing to an understanding of vulnerability and resilience in urban contexts. In the first paper, the author explores the challenges of quantifying urban population vulnerability to extreme heat events. The second paper focuses on understanding excess deaths in Rio de Janeiro during extreme heat events, constructing and validating a heat vulnerability index and identifying key vulnerability factors through factor analysis. Finally, in the third paper, the author evaluates a public policy aimed at improving urban infrastructure in Rio de Janeiro's slums and reducing mortality and morbidity during heatwaves.

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Prosdocimi, Diogo, Cities and Climate Change: Identifying, Measuring and Evaluating Public Policy for Heatwaves. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSDA4274-1.html.
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This publication is part of the RAND dissertation series. Dissertations are written by Ph.D. candidates at the RAND School of Public Policy and supervised, reviewed, and approved by a RAND School faculty committee overseeing each dissertation. The RAND School is the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis.

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