Population projections of the UK Armed Forces community

What is the issue?

The size and demographics of the UK Armed Forces community is changing. Out to 2045, the community will be smaller, more demographically diverse and increasingly intergenerational. The Royal British Legion (RBL) commissioned RAND Europe to produce the first detailed forecasts of the size and demographics of the UK Armed Forces community to 2045 to support the RBL in designing their strategy in a way that recognises and responds to the expected size and demographics within the community.

How did we help?

This research used modelling and simulation approaches to forecast the size and demographics of the Armed Forces community out to 2045, drawing on data published by the Ministry of Defence, Office for National Statistics and Scottish Government. Our approach focused on estimating:

• The current and projected number of Regulars, Reservists and veterans by Service, Rank, age group, gender, ethnicity and nationality.
• The current and projected number of partners of Regulars, Reservists and veterans (including spouses, partners in long-term relationships and former partners previously married to a serving person or veteran).
• The current and projected number of children of Regulars, Reservists and veterans.
• The estimated size and demographics (age and gender) of the bereaved Armed Forces community, including service personnel and veterans bereaved of a partner or child (under 18), and partners and children (under 18) bereaved of a service person or veteran.
• The estimated number of veterans, partners of veteran and children of veterans experiencing poor health, disability and unpaid caring responsibilities.

What did we find?

The size of the serving UK Armed Forces community is not likely to change substantially out to 2045, though the size of this community is strongly driven by policy and targets set for the recruitment and overall trained strength of the Armed Forces, which is in turn dependent on the defence environment.

However, the size of the veteran community is likely to decrease substantially from approximately 1.7 million veterans in 2025 to 1.1 million veterans in 2045. As the World War II and National Service generations die out, the average age of the community will decrease, and the community will become increasingly intergenerational. The Armed Forces community is also likely to become increasingly demographically diverse, with increases in the proportion of female serving personnel and veterans, increases in the proportion of non-UK serving personnel and increases in the proportion of ethnic minority veterans.

Looking specifically at the bereaved community, our research suggests the size of this community (including service personnel, their partners and their children) is likely to remain small but is sensitive to changes in the defence environment (e.g. major conflict), while the size of the bereaved veteran community is likely to decrease as the total number of veterans and partners decreases.

Our research also suggests that as the size and demographics of the veteran community changes, the types of support the community may require will change. The number of veterans and their partners experiencing poor health, disability and unpaid caring responsibilities is likely to decrease. However, there will likely be an increase in the number of young veterans and partners experiencing a disability, including mental health related difficulties, who are likely to require different support from older veterans.

What can be done?

• Service providers should ensure that their services are acceptable, accessible and inclusive for all beneficiaries as the diversity of the Armed Forces community increases.
• Service providers should be mindful of the significant uncertainty in the defence environment, including with regards to personnel moving between different spectrums of service, changes to operational requirements, and potential impacts that could increase the casualty rate of serving personnel.
• Service providers should be mindful of wider societal and demographic changes that are likely to affect the Armed Forces community. These include changing family structures such as multi-parented and single parent families, potential increases in unpaid caring responsibilities and increases in disability levels among young people.

Project team