The Chinese Military's Doubtful Combat Readiness

The People’s Liberation Army Remains Focused on Upholding Chinese Communist Party Rule, Not Preparing for War

Timothy R. Heath

Expert InsightsPublished Jan 27, 2025

Note: In response to feedback on this paper, three sources were revised on March 10, 2025.

What is the purpose of the Chinese military? Could the Taiwan question drive the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prioritize combat readiness? In this paper, the author argues that the modernization of the PLA is fundamentally driven by the imperative to keep the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in power and not to fight a war. By analyzing political, organizational, and other features of China's military, the author shows how the PLA's focus on political loyalty to the CCP constrains the Chinese military's combat readiness. The author demonstrates that China's anticipated decline will likely intensify the PLA's focus on upholding CCP rule and further reduce any incentive to risk a large-scale, high-intensity war.

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Heath, Timothy R., The Chinese Military's Doubtful Combat Readiness: The People’s Liberation Army Remains Focused on Upholding Chinese Communist Party Rule, Not Preparing for War. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA830-1.html.
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