Pivots and Pathways on the Road to Artificial General Intelligence Futures

Matt Chessen, Swaptik Chowdhury

Expert InsightsPublished Oct 14, 2025

The authors of this paper introduce a framework for policy discussions about artificial general intelligence (AGI) that can be used to classify and compare potential AGI futures. The framework is composed of six conceptual pivots that can define the trajectory of AGI futures: centralization of ownership, governance primacy, alignment level, takeoff speed, the human-AGI relationship, and AGI volition. Presented as binary options, each pivot describes the poles for a spectrum of possibilities. 

The proposed pivots are intended to help artificial intelligence policymakers and stakeholders articulate their assumptions about AGI futures more clearly, analyze risks and opportunities across a variety of possibilities, and formulate policy responses that remain robust by being evaluated against plausible scenarios generated through different combinations of pivots.

The authors also explore the implications of pivot combinations and conclude with ideas for further research to enhance the AGI policy dialogue.

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Chessen, Matt and Swaptik Chowdhury, Pivots and Pathways on the Road to Artificial General Intelligence Futures. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4178-1.html.
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