Averting a Robot Catastrophe
Preparing for Converging Trends in Robotics and Frontier AI
Expert InsightsPublished Sep 9, 2025
Preparing for Converging Trends in Robotics and Frontier AI
Expert InsightsPublished Sep 9, 2025
In this paper, the authors assess the convergence of trends in robotics and frontier artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly the exacerbated national security risk that results from the potential for the proliferation of robotic embodiments of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Although the benefits of advanced robotic capabilities are likely to outweigh their associated risks in many contexts, the authors explore how the combination of AGI with robots that feature high mobility and dexterous manipulation could introduce significant systemic vulnerabilities. Policymakers face challenges in balancing the need for safety and security with economic competitiveness because there are no straightforward regulatory options that effectively limit risky combinations of capabilities without hindering innovation. To conclude, the authors stress the urgent need to proactively address this issue now rather than waiting until the technologies are fully deployed to ensure responsible governance and risk management in the evolving landscape of robotics and AI.
This work was independently initiated and conducted within the Technology and Security Policy Center of RAND Global and Emerging Risks using income from operations and gifts from philanthropic supporters. A complete list of donors and funders is available at www.rand.org/TASP.
This publication is part of the RAND expert insights series. The expert insights series presents perspectives on timely policy issues.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
This publication supersedes a previous version published in 2025 (WR-A3989-1).