Averting a Robot Catastrophe

Preparing for Converging Trends in Robotics and Frontier AI

Michael J. D. Vermeer, Timothy M. Bonds, Emily Lathrop, Gregory Smith

Expert InsightsPublished Sep 9, 2025

In this paper, the authors assess the convergence of trends in robotics and frontier artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly the exacerbated national security risk that results from the potential for the proliferation of robotic embodiments of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Although the benefits of advanced robotic capabilities are likely to outweigh their associated risks in many contexts, the authors explore how the combination of AGI with robots that feature high mobility and dexterous manipulation could introduce significant systemic vulnerabilities. Policymakers face challenges in balancing the need for safety and security with economic competitiveness because there are no straightforward regulatory options that effectively limit risky combinations of capabilities without hindering innovation. To conclude, the authors stress the urgent need to proactively address this issue now rather than waiting until the technologies are fully deployed to ensure responsible governance and risk management in the evolving landscape of robotics and AI.

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Vermeer, Michael J. D., Timothy M. Bonds, Emily Lathrop, and Gregory Smith, Averting a Robot Catastrophe: Preparing for Converging Trends in Robotics and Frontier AI. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3691-7.html.
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This publication supersedes a previous version published in 2025 (WR-A3989-1).