Insights from Nuclear History for AI Governance

There have been multiple proposals for the international governance of artificial intelligence (AI) that draw from the existing nuclear governance regimes. In this paper, the authors analyze lessons from the history of nuclear stability and draw analogies to building international governance of AI. The authors analyze two major episodes in nuclear governance, the failure of the Baruch Plan and the success of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to understand what factors led to the failure or success of these governance initiatives. The authors also identify the challenges that proposals for global AI governance face that might complicate building a regime similar to the nuclear nonproliferation one. This paper is intended for those interested in potential models for global governance of AI that draw on past global governance efforts, such as nuclear nonproliferation.