A Proactive Approach for Short-Term Reservoir Operations

In this paper, the authors examine potential applications of Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods on Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) to improve water management strategies and reservoir decisionmaking. Given the potential value that could come from incorporating rainfall ensemble forecasts into reservoir operations, and the corresponding deep uncertainty of these forecasts, the authors consider how these methods can help enhance the benefits and minimize the perils of prediction. The concepts discussed are aimed at informing worldwide water management agencies of future initiatives to integrate DMDU techniques with FIRO techniques for improved reservoir operations.

Using DMDU methods for short-term operational decisionmaking is new territory for the field and pushes the limits of existing approaches to reservoir management. Greater attention and new exploration of these methodological potentials can broaden options for navigating the tradeoffs and uncertainties in reservoir operations. Developments in this area are intended to ultimately improve reservoir operator decisionmaking and water management outcomes.