Natalie Crawford, Longtime RAND Analyst Who Guided Research on Modernizing Air Force, Dies at 86
For Release
Wednesday
September 10, 2025
Natalie Crawford
Photo from RAND Archives
Natalie Crawford, a RAND Corporation analyst and leading authority on U.S. air and space power who worked closely with top Air Force leaders to shape a research agenda focused on the effectiveness and modernization of the service, has died. She was 86 and had worked at RAND for more than 60 years before retiring earlier this year.
After joining the Santa Monica, California–based RAND in 1964, Crawford went on to lead major research projects, including studies on shaping the role of air power for the 21st century. She also was involved in research on integrating cyber operations into the Air Force and future roles for unmanned air systems.
“Natalie Crawford was an exceptional individual who made major contributions to national security because of her deep technical and operational knowledge of U.S. air power,” said Jason Matheny, president and CEO of RAND. “She was dedicated to providing the Air Force with rigorous, objective, and timely research and was valued for her ability to 'tell it like it is' in a room full of top brass.”
Crawford held management positions with RAND Project AIR FORCE for more than two decades, including serving as its director from 1997 to 2006. Crawford joined the division in 1986 and has been the only woman to lead it.
Following the directorship, she became a RAND senior fellow and distinguished chair in Air and Space Policy, and she taught at the RAND School of Public Policy. Upon retirement, she became an adjunct senior fellow.
Her areas of expertise spanned tactical aircraft, aircraft survivability, munitions and targets, electronic combat, theater air defense, and space systems. Other major studies she led included a 1981 review of the characteristics of next-generation tactical fighters and an assessment of the first Gulf War air campaign.
The federally funded RAND Project AIR FORCE was formed in 1946 to provide the Air Force with the input of civilian scientists on a broad range of issues that have included the development of satellites and the introduction of computer technology. It has remained one of RAND's principal research divisions since RAND became an independent nonprofit institution in 1948.
In “Every Day Is a School Day,” a 2017 book that reflected on Crawford's many years at RAND, one researcher said he patterned his work habits after hers and listed advice she gave as a mentor. The first point: Do not be intimidated by higher-ranking people because “Everyone puts on their pants the same way.”
Born in Indiana in 1939, she moved to Southern California in the 11th grade with her parents, John and Dorothea Wilson, and a sister.
At Santa Monica High School in the 1950s, she was captivated by the work of influential Stanford University mathematician George Polya, whose problem-solving theory left a lasting impression on her. In 1961 she earned a bachelor's degree in mathematics from UCLA and began working at North American Aviation as a programmer analyst.
Her work brought her a number of honors, including the Medal for Exceptional Public Service in 2006 from the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Lifetime Achievement Award from the Air Force Association in 2011.
In 2013, she received the Thomas D. White National Defense Award from the United States Air Force Academy. Recognizing individuals who have made significant contributions to national defense, it is rarely given to civilians who have not served in government. In 2024 she received the Eugene G. Fubini Award from the Defense Science Board and was honored at the 2024 Gathering of the Eagles.
Crawford was attending a meeting at the Pentagon with Michael D. Rich, who later became president of RAND, when terrorists crashed a plane into the building on September 11, 2001. “The building felt like it was lifted and fell back down to the ground,” Crawford told the Washington Post days later. “We didn't know if something more would happen.” The pair escaped unharmed. “We are very fortunate,” Crawford told the newspaper. “But there are so many people who were not.”
She was a member of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board and served as its vice chair in 1990 and cochair from 1996 to 1999. She also sat on the Sandia Nuclear Weapons External Advisory Board and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Advisory Council. She was named a fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011.
In 2014, she was selected to be RAND's first chair in Air and Space Policy, a position that provides a RAND researcher with greater resources and flexibility to serve as a mentor to the staff as well as connect with senior leaders in the Air Force, NASA, and the aerospace industry.
In 2022, Crawford gave an estate gift to RAND to establish two funds in the name of Natalie and Robert Crawford, her late husband, to support extending the impact of RAND's research and establish a scholarship at the RAND School of Public Policy for students pursuing a degree with an emphasis on applied technology.