Inadvertent nuclear escalation risks in NATO’s conventional deterrence of Russia
Photo by Hamara/Adobe Stock
What is the issue?
Modern conventional warfare is built on a systems-of-systems approach that emphasises speed, persistent surveillance, and networked military capabilities. However, the complexity of these modern systems makes it difficult to distinguish actions in the conventional domain from those in the nuclear domain.
This project explores potential inadvertent escalation risks during a conventional conflict between NATO and Russia arising from the increasing conventional-nuclear entanglement between advanced conventional weapons and their Command, Control, Communications, Computing, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) enablers on the one hand, and nuclear weapons, their delivery systems and enablers on the other hand.
How are we helping?
Through the project, RAND Europe applies lessons from the Cold War European theatre and the Western Pacific theatre to the current NATO-Russia European context, to highlight escalation risks for UK and NATO policymakers and experts. It does so by taking both NATO European and Russian sources into account.
Beyond re-examining once again relevant policy and conceptual issues, the project uses scenario-building exercises and experiential wargaming to sensitise current and future generations of UK and NATO policymakers to the risks of conventional-nuclear escalation. It also builds capacity among a new generation of UK analysts who will have to grapple with research and policy issues that defy the previously siloed approaches that kept conventional issues separate from nuclear issues.
