Edward Geist

Edward Geist

Senior Policy Researcher; Professor of Policy Analysis, RAND School of Public Policy

Edward Geist is a policy researcher at RAND and a professor of policy analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. His research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He was formerly a MacArthur Nuclear Security Fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation and a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at RAND. His book Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and Soviet Union, 1945–1991, was published by University of North Carolina Press in 2019. His latest book is Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare (Oxford University Press, 2023). Geist received his Ph.D. in history from the University of North Carolina.

Education

Ph.D. in history, University of North Carolina; M.A. in history, University of North Carolina; B.A. in history, William & Mary College

Languages

Russian

Selected Work

  • Geist, Edward, Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare, Oxford University Press (CB-A2209-1), 2023
  • Edward Geist "Why Reasoning Under Uncertainty Is Hard for Both Machines and People — and an Approach to Address the Problem," in RAND, Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches, RAND Corporation (RR-A1275-1), 2022
  • Geist, Edward, Alvin Moon, What Even Superintelligent Computers Can’t Do: A Preliminary Framework for Identifying Fundamental Limits Constraining Artificial General Intelligence, RAND Corporation (WR-A3990-1), 2025

Authored by Edward Geist

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