After decades inside the halls of the Pentagon and the White House Situation Room, Barry Pavel has witnessed global power shifts firsthand.
Now, as vice president and director of the RAND National Security Research Division, Pavel and his team help policymakers navigate a world where geopolitical tensions are rising and technology is redefining how nations compete.
Today's security challenges—from breakthroughs in artificial intelligence to competition in the Arctic and intensifying economic rivalries—are transforming global stability and everyday life.
“How nations and leaders respond,” Pavel said, “will shape the future of security for generations to come.”
If there were a bumper sticker for this geopolitical moment, what would it say?
“Dynamic and turbulent.” At least since the outset of the 2020s, the tectonic plates of the global system have been shifting. Leaders are grappling with changes in perception, too—especially China's growing belief that the United States is in decline. That's dangerous, because misperceptions drive miscalculations. The U.S. must act carefully, being assertive where needed but not provocative.
You've said artificial intelligence could reshape the global order. How might it shift the balance of power among nations?
AI could be transformative, much like the printing press. Nations that master the most-advanced forms first could turbocharge their economies, scientific advances, and military capabilities.
If a rival achieved artificial general intelligence or gained a lead in advanced AI, it might secure dominant positions in sectors that power the world economy or introduce destabilizing military tools. Even a temporary lead could have enduring consequences.
We must treat AI as foundational to national security and prosperity—developing its capabilities responsibly and strategically, so outcomes aren't dictated by others who don't share our interests and values.
Nations that master the most-advanced forms of AI first could turbocharge their economies, scientific advances, and military capabilities.
Americans hear constantly about the rivalry between the United States and China. Why should they care?
It's easy to think geopolitics happens elsewhere, but that's no longer true. What happens overseas affects the prices we pay, the supply chains supporting our jobs, and even our health and safety. A blockage in the Suez Canal or a cyberattack abroad can ripple directly into American households.
China's continued economic growth and its push for dominance in high-tech fields like AI, robotics, and biotech are central to today's strategic competition and tomorrow's geopolitical outcomes. The U.S. still holds the global advantage, but Beijing's collaboration with Russia, Iran, and North Korea signals a coalition that doesn't share our interests and values.
The U.S. must navigate this era with clear priorities and steadiness. We must stand ready to safeguard the global networks of trade, tech, and security that make our way of life possible.
As new frontiers open, from the Arctic to space, how are nations racing for position, and why does it matter for people at home?
Both domains are becoming strategic frontiers. In the Arctic, melting ice is opening new shipping routes and access to resources. Russia already has extensive infrastructure there, and our NATO allies like Canada and Norway are stepping up, too. The U.S. needs to be fully engaged with enhanced maritime capabilities, presence, and partnerships so we're not sidelined as this region becomes more economically and militarily significant.
Space is another domain we take for granted, but we depend on it constantly. Every time we use GPS, stream data, or move goods across oceans, space assets make it possible.
Yet security in space hasn't kept up. Adversaries are experimenting with systems that could threaten satellites or claim advantages in areas like cislunar space—the region between Earth and the moon. The U.S. must preserve open and secure access to space, as it's essential to our economy, security, and way of life.
Economic strength has become a major factor in national security. What does “economic security” really mean, and why does it matter?
Economic security means ensuring that prosperity and resilience underpin national strength. We're in a new era where economic tools—sanctions, supply-chain policy, and technology controls—are leading strategic instruments. For example, China's leverage over critical minerals and manufacturing gives it points of pressure over the U.S. and its allies, which we are seeking to overcome.
To stay competitive, the U.S. must combine innovation with a more unified economic strategy. In the Cold War, the U.S. created the Joint Chiefs of Staff to integrate efforts across the military services. A similar mechanism could bring together Commerce, Treasury, State, and others to strengthen coordination and planning.
Fair competition is another part of this. For decades, some countries have used state-directed subsidies and industrial espionage to tilt the playing field. The U.S. and its allies can't afford to play defense indefinitely. We need to set the terms of fair economic engagement for the technologies that will shape this century.
As a national security expert, what keeps you up at night?
Every strategy requires focus on the known threats and opportunities. That means we'll inevitably miss others. What keeps me up are the surprises, the threats we don't see coming or underestimate until it's too late.
I was in the Pentagon on 9/11, and that kind of shock never leaves you. Washington has a long history of being surprised, so part of foresight is humility and recognizing how much we don't know. Today, those surprises could come from rapidly evolving technologies or unregulated domains—advanced biological capabilities, malicious uses of AI, or cyber operations that strike without warning.
I worry about the blind spots, but I am also optimistic. What gives me confidence is America's capacity to learn, adapt, and reinvent itself. We are an extraordinarily dynamic nation. We've faced major challenges before, and we've overcome them through innovation and bold thinking. We can do it again.
